German expert explains why Crimean bridge still stands

Julian Roepke, a German military analyst and columnist for Bild, said this in comments to Ukrinform.

Roepke identified two primary reasons why Ukraine has not recently targeted the bridge.

"First, Storm Shadow missiles are not optimal for hitting the Crimean bridge. They rely on GPS guidance, and Russia has deployed extensive jamming technology around the bridge and Kerch," he explained. "Second, the bridge's strategic importance has declined, as Russia now uses alternative routes through occupied territories."

He pointed to a newly established route running from Taganrog and Novoazovsk via Mariupol, Melitopol, and Tokmak. Construction on this infrastructure is ongoing. While the Crimean bridge still holds symbolic significance, it no longer represents a critical logistical asset.

Even if Ukraine launched 10 or 15 Storm Shadow missiles, and only a few hit the bridge, "that would be bad," Roepke said.

"What would make it relatively easy to destroy the Crimean bridge is the Taurus. One or two would be enough to put the Crimean bridge out of service for months. And that would be very easy. It's so easy that Chancellor Olaf Scholz opposes it," Roepke said.

Under the current German government, Ukraine is unlikely to receive Taurus missiles, Roepke said. Regarding the next government, he stressed that actions speak louder than words. Friedrich Merz, leader of the Christian Democratic Union and a candidate for chancellor in the early elections, has vowed to issue an ultimatum to Russia: cease bombing Ukraine and plunging it into cold and darkness, or face the transfer of long-range missiles to Ukraine. Merz has a realistic chance of winning the February elections and could assume office as chancellor by April, Roepke said.

"I am certain Russia will not stop its aggression, and not because of Trump's plans either. If Merz follows through on his ultimatum -- and I believe he will -- Ukraine will receive Taurus missiles under Chancellor Friedrich Merz," Roepke said.

Ukraine formally requested Taurus missiles, also known as "bunker busters," from Germany in May 2023. However, Chancellor Olaf Scholz has consistently refused, maintaining his stance even after the U.S., UK, and France supplied Kyiv with similar long-range weaponry.