Ukraine war could have ended earlier with Middle East-level air defense, Stubb says

He said this in an interview with Bloomberg on Saturday during a state visit to India, according to Ukrinform.

Stubb argued that the war in Ukraine, now in its fifth year, could have ended earlier had Kyiv received the level of air-defense support deployed in the Gulf region during the first seven days of the Middle East war.

The Finnish President compared the financial cost of the wars, estimating that the first week of hostilities in Iran cost about $40 billion – roughly equivalent to the annual spending by European countries on aid to Ukraine. Total European support for Ukraine since 2022 is estimated at €250–300 billion ($290–350 billion), he said.

According to Stubb, the war in the Middle East may also have certain advantages. Strikes by the United States and Israel on Iran, as well as Tehran’s counterattacks on American bases in the Middle East and in several neighboring countries, mean that “Iran and Russia are not able to cooperate right now on missiles or the defense industry.”

However, he noted that Russia already has two factories producing Shahed drones using Iranian technology. Stubb added that a likely negative consequence of the Middle East conflict is rising oil prices, “which is basically going to feed the Russian war machine.”

At the same time, the shift of global attention toward Iran could create opportunities for diplomacy on Ukraine, making “space for the negotiators to come up with something without the limelight,” the Finnish president said.

Stubb, who previously maintained frequent contact with Donald Trump, particularly regarding the war in Ukraine, said he has not spoken with the U.S. President since the end of last year.

As Ukrinform previously reported, Stubb believes the European Union should have a seat at the negotiating table, as it is paying for the war, but communication with Russia must be coordinated and agreed upon with Ukraine.

Photo: Office of the President of Ukraine