Russian combat losses rate close to that at which Russia generating new forces – ISW

The relevant statement was made by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), an Ukrinform correspondent reports.

On December 7, 2023, Head of the Public Relations Service of the Ground Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Volodymyr Fitio stated that Russian forces lost almost 11,000 personnel (presumably killed or rendered hors de combat by injury) in the Kupiansk, Lyman, and Bakhmut directions in November 2023. The operational tempo in the Kupiansk, Lyman, and Bakhmut directions is currently lower than in the Avdiivka direction.

“These reported losses suggest that the Russian casualty rate in the Avdiivka area may be even higher given the higher operational tempo there,” the analysts noted.

According to the ISW, Ukrainian officials previously reported that Russian forces lost 5,000 personnel killed and wounded near Avdiivka and Marinka between October 10 and 26, when Russian forces launched two waves of heavily mechanized assaults to capture Avdiivka.

Russian forces are currently conducting mass infantry-led assaults to capture Avdiivka in an apparent effort to conserve armored vehicles despite the risk of even greater manpower losses.

“High Russian casualties will likely prevent Russian forces from fully replenishing and reconstituting existing units in Ukraine and forming new operational and strategic reserves if Russian force generation efforts continue at current rates while the Russian military continues operations,” the ISW concluded.

A reminder that, between February 24, 2022 and December 8, 2023, Russia’s total combat losses in Ukraine reached about 337,220 troops.