German ex-spy warns conflict in Iran strengthens Putin's position
Arndt Freytag von Loringhoven, former vice president of Germany's Federal Intelligence Service (BND), said this in an interview with Ukrinform.
"The current escalation in the Middle East causes me serious concern. Above all, it is unclear what concrete military objectives the United States is actually pursuing there. There is a risk that the U.S., Israel, and possibly the wider Middle East could become embroiled in a long-term war. We have already seen such developments in Iraq, Afghanistan, and Libya. The notion that military goals can be achieved in a few weeks often proves to be an illusion," he said.
Von Loringhoven noted that if the Iran conflict evolves into a long war – or even a civil war – it would have significant geopolitical consequences. "The strategic focus of the United States will shift even more from Ukraine to the Middle East," he added.
According to him, this likely means that military resources – such as Patriot systems, ammunition, and other equipment – "will be increasingly used there and less will reach Ukraine."
"For Ukraine, this would create a very difficult situation. Rising oil and gas prices also play a major role. For Russia, high energy prices are a real gift for its war budget. The war surrounding Iran clearly plays into Putin's hands," the former German intelligence official said.
He also expressed skepticism about the prospects for peace talks, primarily due to the Kremlin's lack of genuine willingness to negotiate.
"I am not optimistic because I see no signs that Russia is ready for real compromise or serious negotiations. Under Donald Trump, the United States came closer to Russian positions in many ways. The war around Iran also strengthens Russia – through oil prices, military equipment deliveries to the Middle East, and a shift of political focus there. Under these conditions, I see few prospects for successful negotiations," von Loringhoven said.
As was reported earlier, Moscow's revenue from fossil fuel sales reached EUR 7.7 billion in the two weeks after joint U.S. and Israeli strikes triggered the Iran war, driving a sharp increase in global oil prices and prompting the U.S. to ease some sanctions against Russia.
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