Kremlin changing its tactics in Donbas - Stratfor

Kremlin changing its tactics in Donbas - Stratfor

Ukrinform
The actual extension of the Minsk Agreements in 2016 was made possible due to concessions on the part of Ukraine. In response, Moscow also made advances and sent the agents of the Russian Federal Security Service to cleanse Donbas of the uncontrolled militants.

 This is the conclusion of the experts of Stratfor, the U.S.-based private intelligence and analytical company.

The official Kyiv was the first to make advances, the experts claim. "Russia insisted on the extension of the peace accords, but Ukraine hesitated, challenged the demand to hold elections in Donbas, and pointed to ongoing ceasefire violations in the east. However, shortly before the telephone conversations in the Normandy format [which took place in late December 2015], German Chancellor Angela Merkel called President of Ukraine Petro Poroshenko, and the advances must have been made after that call. In addition, after the general talks, French President Francois Hollande said that the elections in Donbas remained the part of the agreements," reads the report.

The concessions from Russia, the Stratfor experts consider, involve descending intensity of fighting in eastern Ukraine. Despite the fact that the militants of the so-called “Donetsk People’s Republic” and “Luhansk people’s Republic” continue violating the ceasefire, they fire on the positions of the ATO forces about 10-20 times a day, not 50 times as it was earlier. "This happens amid the reports of the Ukrainian intelligence on the increased movement of the agents of the Russian Federal Security Service along the demarcation line in Donbas. The Russian agents are likely to cleanse the territory of the separatists, who are considered to be uncontrolled [murder of Evgeny Kononov, one of the commanders of the “DPR” militants, in Donetsk became known after the publication of the report]. Sometimes it was hard to name the reason for the escalation in eastern Ukraine. It might be the orders of the Kremlin or the proper initiative of the militants’ leaders. Now that the Russia’s Federal Security Service regains the control of the separatist leaders, the Service will guarantee that the developments in Donbas will be caused by the instructions from Moscow," the representatives of the U.S. private intelligence company noted.

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