Opposition figure: Independent Belarusian attack on Ukraine unlikely despite militarization

This view was expressed by Pavel Latushko, deputy head of the United Transitional Cabinet of Belarus, on the sidelines of the PACE session in Strasbourg in comments to Ukrinform.

“First of all, the system for making such a decision has changed. From now on, the decision to send the Belarusian armed forces to war is made by the All-Belarusian People’s Assembly. This consists of 1,200 so-called delegates appointed by Lukashenko. The mobilization system has been changed. Digital mobilization via SMS messages has been introduced. The mobilization threshold has been lowered—meaning that, in effect, a much broader segment of the population can now be drafted into the army. Thus, Belarus’s mobilization reserve currently numbers 289,000 people. Meanwhile, the regular army consists of 65,000,” he explained.

According to Latushko, there are plans to increase the regular army to 85,000. And if you add 150,000 members of the Territorial Defense, the total comes to approximately half a million troops.

“Training in Belarus never stops. As one exercise ends, another begins. They are training everyone, even divers. Just recently, a combat readiness inspection of the armed forces took place. In 2024 alone, 4,600 different new weapons systems were delivered to them, and the Southern Operational Command was established. All of this is a clear sign of preparations for war,” he asserts.

Separately, he notes the increase in defense spending—32% in the past year alone—and the ideological indoctrination of society.

“Lukashenko constantly uses the word ‘war.’ We are preparing for war. War is inevitable. And Lukashenko, in my opinion, uses this word very often to psychologically prepare Belarusian society so that if it happens, it won’t come as such a shock. However, in reality, the Belarusian army is incapable of launching an attack. And not because Lukashenko loves Ukraine or Ukrainians. We know his attitude toward Ukraine, toward Lithuanians, and toward Poles. It’s because he’s afraid of losing his position. To play the role of Putin’s assistant—yes, Lukashenko will always do that. Just as it was in 2022, but to launch an aggression on his own—that’s unrealistic,” says the Belarusian opposition figure.

And although neither the army nor society has the motivation or desire to participate in a war, Belarus does have special operations forces.

“There has been serious ‘brainwashing’ over the years. Russian flags are flying there, and Wagner Group instructors have worked with them. And these are people ready to fight. But again—rather not as the main force, not in the front lines, but as a second echelon. Or alongside the Russian armed forces,” he explained.

As reported, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky emphasized that Russia may be considering various scenarios, particularly those related to Belarusian territory, but expressed hope that Minsk would not be drawn into such plans.