Pro-Russian forces’ victory in Bulgaria poses risks for Ukraine, but should not be overstated, analyst says

This opinion was expressed in an interview with Ukrinform by political analyst, public figure, and co-founder of the National Platform for Resilience and Cohesion, Oleh Saakian.

According to him, the new Bulgarian leadership may complicate both bilateral relations with Ukraine and decision-making processes within the European Union.

“There is nothing good for Ukraine to expect from this government. There is a risk that Bulgaria may partially try to occupy the niche previously filled by Hungary,” Saakian said.

At the same time, he stressed that Bulgaria’s influence in the EU is significantly more limited than that of Budapest.

“The country is not fully integrated in a number of areas, so its institutional weight is much smaller,” he explained.

The expert also pointed to Bulgaria’s internal political situation, describing the pro-Russian victory as “Pyrrhic.” He said it became possible due to voter fatigue after a series of snap elections, with turnout at only about one-third of eligible voters.

“In reality, they were supported by a minority of a minority. This means low legitimacy and high risks of political instability,” he noted.

Saakian added that a significant part of society may remain in opposition to the new government, creating conditions for a rapid political crisis, especially if radical policies are pursued.

He also highlighted Bulgaria’s economic dependence on EU funding as a restraining factor.

“Any attempt to sabotage Brussels’ decisions could quickly turn into socio-economic problems. It is, metaphorically speaking, a bomb under the government, with the ‘trigger’ in Brussels,” he said.

As a result, despite existing risks, the situation in Bulgaria is more likely to create additional difficulties for Ukraine rather than pose a critical threat at the EU level, the expert concluded.

As reported, parliamentary elections were held in Bulgaria on April 19 – the seventh snap election in the country since 2021. According to the results, the party of pro-Russian former president Rumen Radev, Progressive Bulgaria, received the highest number of votes.