War to shrink Ukraine’s economy at least by a third - National Bank

War to shrink Ukraine’s economy at least by a third - National Bank

The National Bank of Ukraine estimates the war-related economic contraction by at least a third compared to pre-war levels.

This was stated by First Deputy Chair of the NBU, Kateryna Rozhkova, who spoke at a spring business forum in Lviv, an Ukrinform correspondent reports.

"According to our estimates, the economy could drop by at least a third," Rozhkova said.

According to the senior official, it will depend on how long the war will last and what part of Ukraine’s territory it will cover.

Read also: G7 countries mobilized $19.8B in economic support to Ukraine

Thus, in March, hostilities engulfed 10 regions producing 55% of Ukraine's total GDP. Already in April, hostilities covered areas that formed about 20% of GDP. At the same time, supply chains were destroyed throughout Ukraine.

"According to our estimates, the physical loss of business assets - premises, capacities, etc. - is estimated at about $100 billion. This is for today, but the war is still going on," Rozhkova said.

Advanter Group experts have estimated the total direct losses of small and medium-sized businesses (SMEs) in Ukraine in the wake of the full-scale Russian invasion at $64-85 billion.

Read also: U.S. Senate passes $40B Ukraine aid bill

According to the NBU, as of late April, the number of enterprises that completely ceased operations fell to 17% from 32% recorded at the onset of the full-scale war.

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