European intelligence doubts war in Ukraine will end this year – Reuters

The heads of five European spy agencies told this to Reuters in recent days on condition of anonymity, Ukrinform reports.

They said Russia did not want to end the war quickly. Four of them said Moscow was using the talks with the U.S. to push for sanctions relief and business deals.

Two of the officials said Moscow was trying to separate the talks into two different tracks – one focused on the war and a second focused on bilateral deals with the U.S. that would include sanctions relief for Russia.

The talks – the latest round of which took place in Geneva this week – are "negotiation theater," one European intelligence chief said.

"Russia is not seeking a peace agreement. They are seeking their strategic goals, and those have not changed," one of the European intelligence chiefs said.

These include the removal of Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelensky and for Ukraine to become a "neutral" buffer to the West.

The main issue, a second intelligence chief said, is that Russia neither wants nor needs a quick peace and its economy is "not on the verge of collapse." However, a third official said Russia faced "very high" financial risks in the second half of 2026, citing among other factors Moscow's limited access to capital markets due to sanctions and high borrowing costs.

The second spy chief said Russia could be satisfied territorially if it obtained the rest of Donetsk, but that would not fulfil its objective of overthrowing Zelensky's pro-Western government. The third intelligence chief said there was a misplaced belief that Ukraine ceding Donetsk would quickly lead to a peace deal.

"In the case of the Russians getting these concessions, I (think) that this is maybe the beginning of actual negotiations," the official said, predicting Russia would then make further demands.

The intelligence chiefs did not say how they obtained their information and, without providing evidence, also expressed concern over the "very limited" level of skill in negotiating with Russia across the West, including on the European side, which Zelensky says should have an active role in the talks.