Russia promotes 'territorial' peace scenario without security guarantees for Ukraine – ISW

 The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) stated this in an article, Ukrinform reports.

Analysts highlighted reports from Western media that the U.S. allegedly agreed to Russia's demand for Ukraine to cede part of its territory before receiving official security guarantees, and that the U.S. would not conclude a security agreement with Ukraine until Ukraine and Russia reach a peace agreement.

The report notes that the Kremlin continually tries to portray territory as the only remaining important issue in negotiations, while presenting Ukraine as an intransigent party refusing to cede land that Russian forces could not capture by force. At the same time, Russia itself refuses to compromise on its territorial claims.

"The Kremlin has been publicly focusing on territory in part to distract from its own rejection of any meaningful Western security guarantees for Ukraine," the analysts said.

They believe Russia is unlikely to agree to any security guarantees for Ukraine, even if Ukraine cedes territory. Thus, agreements Russia insists on—and reportedly accepted by the U.S.—would effectively force Ukraine to capitulate on critical territorial issues without any guarantees against future Russian aggression. A peace agreement acceptable to Russia would undoubtedly include territorial provisions according to its current demands, and reports that the U.S. will not sign a security agreement with Ukraine until the country agrees to cede territory mean that territorial terms would take effect before any U.S.-Ukraine security guarantees are implemented, without any assurance that Russia will honor them. This sequence of agreements poses a high risk of leaving Ukraine "exposed" to a renewed Russian attack without military support guarantees from the U.S. or other partners to deter or respond to such an attack.

"The Kremlin likely sees an opportunity to manipulate the US-led negotiations process into another means through which Russia can achieve its unchanging military and political objectives, which it has failed to achieve in nearly four years of war. Russia's demand that Ukraine withdraw from the remainder of Donetsk Oblast without preconditions and the Kremlin's rejection of a ceasefire to conduct negotiations are further evidence that Russia will accept nothing short of its full war demands," the analysts concluded.

As Ukrinform reported, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky called on the Trump administration to increase pressure on Russia to end the war, and suggested that Congress might need to vote to strengthen any postwar security guarantees for Ukraine.