Russia risks losing control over 40% of its territory due to Chinese, North Korean expansion – intelligence

Ukraine's Foreign Intelligence Service said this in a statement seen by Ukrinform.

"Russia is increasingly 'paying' its allies in the war against Ukraine with its own territory. Lacking the resources to develop its largest region – the Far Eastern Federal District – Moscow is paving the way for external expansion," the FIS said.

China is expanding its influence economically. Forecasts indicate that its investments in the region may reach one trillion rubles in 2025. However, intelligence notes that most agreements concern trade, with no major infrastructure projects involved.

According to Viktor Kalashnikov, a senator representing Khabarovsk Krai, Russia-China trade turnover increased by 5.5 million tonnes in 2024 and by another 36% in the first half of 2025.

"At the same time, China is conducting a 'creeping' demographic expansion. From Vladivostok to the Urals, up to two million Chinese citizens already reside there, and this number continues to grow. This is facilitated by preferential terms within Russia's advanced development territories and the introduction of visa-free travel. Enclaves are emerging where Russians hardly work at all," the FIS said.

Simultaneously, Moscow is engaging North Korea in the region's development. Over the past year, more than 15,000 North Korean workers have arrived in the Far East, with unofficial estimates reaching up to 50,000. Russian companies have already requested an additional 153,000 labor contracts. The workers receive minimal wages, while Pyongyang earns up to $500 million annually.

According to Ukrainian intelligence, this creates a situation where two nuclear powers are simultaneously strengthening their presence on the territory of a third. China is fostering economic dependence, while North Korea provides labor. Both are addressing their own domestic challenges at Russia's expense.

In the long term, the growing Chinese presence and the expansion of North Korean labor quotas could trigger a conflict of interest between the two partners. The Kremlin risks losing control over 40% of its own territory – nearly seven million square kilometers with a population of 7.9 million – effectively turning the Far East into a theater for foreign strategic ambitions.

Earlier reports said that the number of labor migrants in the Russian Federation had increased, and amid a workforce shortage, Moscow is now considering bringing in workers from South Asian countries.