Weak France benefits Russia and China – expert

President of the Center for Global Studies Strategy XXI Mykhailo Honchar stated this in a comment to Ukrinform.

“By one way or another, France has always been, is, and, obviously, will remain a target of Russian influence. Not so much from the outside, but in recent years from within. All this is the result of accumulated explosive material that France absorbed back in the Cold War era... All these Soviet-Russian influence networks remain strong. And therefore, against the backdrop of these internal political upheavals, Russia may play quite skillfully,” the expert believes.

In his opinion, if these influences are not countered, “anti-war” sentiments may unfold in France, portraying the country as allegedly being dragged into war with Russia.

“Russia’s attempts not only to neutralize the eastern flank of NATO, bordering Ukraine, but also to neutralize Western European countries, will continue. We understand that the further west a country is, the less understanding there is of whether a war is taking place in Ukraine, somewhere in Eastern Europe, or near Europe. Therefore, Russia wants to achieve a cumulative effect when Ukraine loses support on NATO’s eastern flank – directly from neighboring countries – and, at the same time, weakens that stronghold of Ukraine’s support, where France, in fact, was at the forefront. Thus, the state of a weak France benefits Russia and China,” Honchar emphasizes.

According to the expert, the internal crisis and financial instability negatively affect France’s capabilities within the Coalition of the Willing.

“We see a situation where the Coalition, initiated in February 2024 precisely by Macron, has not, even after a year and a half, transformed into something more decisive. And one of the reasons is the budget deficit. Under these circumstances, regardless of how the political crisis in France ends – whether there will be a new minority government or early elections – the fundamental issue of the budget deficit will not be resolved. Hence, in my opinion, lies the problem of France’s activity in the qualitative transition from a ‘coalition of the indecisive’ to a ‘coalition of the effective.’ But at the same time, I think that with a conditionally creative approach, something still could be done,” Honchar said.

He noted that France still has at its disposal Mirage and Rafale fighter jets needed by Ukraine, and a squadron of the French Air Force could carry out missions.

“Funds are needed to redeploy them to Romania, for example, if we are talking about the earlier idea of air covering Odesa and the western sector of the Black Sea. The question is where to get the money, ammunition, and so on. However, this can be solved at the level of the European Union, or rather, a group of countries that claim to be that very Coalition of the Willing. If these countries lack such capabilities, they can sponsor France, but then it really has to be ready,” the expert noted.

As reported, the French parliament the day before expressed a motion of no confidence in Prime Minister François Bayrou. On Tuesday, Bayrou is to submit his resignation to President Emmanuel Macron, who promised to appoint a new head of government in the coming days.

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