Amid ongoing negotiations on a potential ceasefire in the Russian-Ukrainian war, Estonia remains a steadfast supporter of Ukraine's territorial integrity.
Estonian Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna, who has held the post since April 2023, reminded his followers on social media ahead of the upcoming meeting between U.S. President Trump and Russian leader Vladimir Putin in Alaska: "If borders can be changed by force, none are safe."
Tsahkna has been a consistent advocate for Ukraine, including its right to strike targets on the territory of the aggressor state. In an interview with Ukrinform, he discussed Estonia's perspective on possible security guarantees for Ukraine, whether Estonians are prepared to continue supporting Ukrainians, and why Russia is, in reality, unable to achieve the objectives Putin has proclaimed.
RUSSIA IS NOW FURTHER FROM ITS INITIAL GOALS THAN AT THE START OF THE WAR
- Estonia is a member of the Coalition of the Willing and one of the most trustful allies of Ukraine. How do you see a realistic peace deal with Russia and what could be sufficient guarantees for Ukraine's security that are being discussed as a part of (or a step to) such a deal?
- The realistic outlook currently is that Russia is not interested and willing to achieve peace, is continuing its aggression and has not moved from its original goals. We see the increase in brutal attacks on the Ukrainian cities while Russia continues to talk about the “root causes” of war. This is not a path towards peace or even ceasefire. We need a peace that enhances European security and prevents any future Russian aggression, not be something that Ukraine is pressed into to achieve an appearance of security. Therefore the most realistic path towards lasting peace is continuing with maximum support for Ukraine and maximum pressure on Russia. This entails first strengthening the Ukrainian Armed Forces which is the ultimate source of security for Ukraine - success on battlefield is the basis for ending the aggression. But as important is to show that Ukraine is and never will be alone. Through the Coalition of the Willing more than 30 states have shown their concrete commitment and willingness to contribute to the security of Ukraine, also with boots on the ground. This is not yet NATO membership, which we see as the only real long-term effective security arrangement, but the key is that any guarantee for security has to be credible for Putin and for ourselves. Other wise such guarantees become meaningless and even counterproductive. The exact composition and mechanism of the guarantees is something that the Coalition with the full support of the United States, is currently working on, so that we can be ready from the day one.
In parallel to the security guarantees for Ukraine to deter future aggression in the European continent, we must continue working to ensure that the aggression goes not unpunished, and that all deported children and prisoners of war are returned. Russia and its leadership must be held fully accountable for waging a war of aggression against Ukraine, and for the other crimes under international law, as well as for the massive damage caused by its war. The unlawful deportation and forcible transfer of Ukrainian children, their forced re-education, militarization and Russification is aimed at erasing Ukraine’s distinct identity. This kind of terrorization of another nation, in combination of relentless deliberate attacks on civilian objects amount to crimes against humanity and war crimes. It is just unimaginable that the international community would let these most serious international crimes go unpunished.
- In February 2022, the Russian army occupied a large piece of Ukrainian land, including not only some of the eastern territories, but also parts of the Kyiv, Sumy, Chernihiv, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson regions. But since sutumn 2022 the Ukrainian Armed Forces liberated over 52 percent of those newly occupied lands. Throughout 2024, Russian forces captured four medium-sized settlements – Avdiivka, Selydove, Vuhledar, and Kurakhove, the largest of which had a pre-war population of just over 31,000 people. To sum up in a thousand days, less than 1% of our territory has been occupied by the Russians. But still some pro-Russian “experts” or opinion-makers make it seem as if Russia is winning – although it is moving incredibly slow and losing over 1,000 men per day. Why does the narrative that Russia is "winning" this war still persist in the mind of some people despite such minor territorial gains? How do you assess the pace of Russia’s offensive given its losses and the results after nearly three years of war?
- Ukraine's armed forces, its people and society have shown incredible resilience and bravery in the face of the brutal Russian onslaught, with war raging on for the fourth year. After the initial quick gains and as quick losses this has turned into extremely slow and costly push for Russia, which has no realistic military perspective other than hope for the break in the resolve and unity of Ukraine and ourselves through reigning terror on its people and cities. Part of this is also the propaganda narrative of “winning”, which does not hold up to the facts. After all, Russia is further from its original goals than it was at the beginning of the war. These small territorial gains are the only thing that Russia can show for the immense cost and suffering it has created. No doubt this has influence on some people and audiences, but we have to be clear – it is not the territory but the independence and sovereignty of Ukraine and the security architecture in Europe, that Russia is contesting. And is for us to make it clear every day with our actions and our messages that the steadfast support to Ukraine and growing pressure on Russia make the continuation of the aggression an increasingly costly and futile exercise. The more we do, the quicker this becomes a reality that Russia has to accept. This is fundamentally more important than discussing small movements on the front.
UPCOMING SANCTIONS PACKAGES WILL HIT RUSSIA'S WAR ECONOMY EVEN HARDER
- Russia has already entered a recession due to high central bank interest rates and declining revenues, hitting major companies hard. Still, the Kremlin spends over 40 percent of its budget on the war. Do you see here a space for more economic pressure that could make a peace deal with Russia more achievable?
- Russia has shown it does not care about its own people and is willing to sacrifice immense resources to achieve its imperialistic aims. However, these resources are not infinite and are heavily dependent on the revenues Russia is generating, mainly through the sale of energy resources and the technology it receives. We have shown remarkable unity and determination in curbing Russian ability to wage war and are seeing that sanctions are working. But as long as Russia is not taking the peace process seriously and is continuing a full-scale war against Ukraine, we must continue to exert maximum economic pressure on Russia and limit its ability to continue its war of aggression against Ukraine. In July, the European Union approved its 18th package of sanctions, aimed at increasing pressure on Russia and preventing it from financing its war machine by lowering the price ceiling for Russian oil from $60 to $47.6 per barrel. Over 100 ships, mainly carrying Russian oil, were added to the sanctions list next to the previously sanctioned ships. And we must continue – next sanction packages must be adopted to impact Russian military economy.
BY 2029, ESTONIA WILL SPEND EUR 10 BILLION ON ITS OWN DEFENSE
- Last month alone, there were facts of Russians violating Estonian security. On April 5, Estonia expelled a Russian national, stating that he posed a threat to the security of the Estonian state and public order. And in August, Estonia expelled a Russian diplomat and declared him persona non grata. Do these expulsions signal that Estonia sees increasing Russian espionage or destabilization attempts on its territory? Could such measures by Estonia inspire other EU or NATO members to adopt a tougher stance toward Russian operatives?
- Since Russia's war against Ukraine began, it has intensified campaigns against Europe, increasingly with sabotage actions. This is not specific to Estonia. One important countermeasure is public exposure and attribution of Russia's actions, which Estonia has continously done.
- In May, Russia sent a military aircraft in response to an attempt by the Estonian Navy to detain the oil tanker, which was heading to Russia and is under UK sanctions. How effective has the fight against Russia’s "shadow fleet" been, and should we expect sanctions on both the Russian ports of departure and the foreign ports of arrival?
- To combat Russia's so-called shadow fleet, the EU and our close partners and allies are using a combination of sanctions, port access denials, and increased maritime surveillance to disrupt its operations. This has limited the possibilities of the vessels to operate and made it more costly. The EU has now listed 444 vessels in Russia's shadow fleet and we will continue to list vessels and develop measures that decrease the possibilities of the shadow fleet to operate.
- What concrete advantages does Estonia gain from allocating 5.4% of its GDP to defense, and how does this strengthen its resilience against Russian threats?
- Estonia’s national defense and deterrence posture is based on two pillars: independent defence capability, i.e. our own capabilities and NATO collective defence. To strengthen our own capabilities, Estonia will spend over EUR 10 billion on defense between 2026-2029. The future model for the Estonian Defense Forces includes enhanced situational awareness, modernization of weaponry, increased ammunition reserves, a combat ready force and more advanced training programs. All branches of the armed forces are undergoing significant upgrades to increase firerange, allowing engagement with the enemy from greater distances. Additionally, intelligence-gathering capabilities will be substantially improved to provide better overall awareness.
- What are the moods among Estonians, who give a lot to support Ukraine per capita, nowadays in the fourth year of the war?
- Public support in Estonia for providing financial, political, and military aid to Ukraine remains strong and stable.
The latest polls (June 2025) show, that 59% of the Estonian population support military assistance to Ukraine. 71% of residents support providing humanitarian aid to Ukraine (no change). 59% of residents in Estonia support recovery and reconstruction efforts in Ukraine after the war. Sanctions against Russia, even if it means a significant increase in energy and food prices, are supported by 56% of the population.
Anna Kostiuchenko, Kyiv
Photos: Facebook.com/margus.tsahkna