Signs of systemic crisis emerging in Russia’s banking sector, intel reports
This was reported by the Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine, Ukrinform reports.
According to a report by the pro-Kremlin Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-term Forecasting (CMASF), analysts say the share of non-performing assets in Russia’s banking system has exceeded 10%. Under International Monetary Fund methodology, this level is considered the threshold for the onset of a systemic banking crisis.
Experts note that the indicator has remained above the critical threshold for the third consecutive month.
The CMASF report states that the crisis is currently “latent in nature”. The deterioration in asset quality is being masked through the restructuring of overdue loans and the dominance of state-owned banks, which allows authorities to avoid panic among depositors and maintain the appearance of stability in the financial system.
Over the past 12 months, Russia’s GDP growth has slowed to 0.4%, while the negative economic trend observed throughout 2025 has continued into early 2026.
Another sign of worsening conditions has been the sharp rise in overdue intercompany receivables which have exceeded 8 trillion rubles for the first time, or 3.8% of Russia’s GDP. Nearly half of Russian enterprises cited payment delays from counterparties as the main problem of the past year.
As previously reported by Ukrinform, Russia’s corporate bond market is rapidly approaching a large-scale wave of defaults amid deteriorating economic conditions caused by the war against Ukraine and the prolonged economic crisis.
