Expert gives forecast of foreign exchange rates in Ukraine for early Sept 2025

The relevant statement was made by Director of the Financial Markets and Investment Department at Globus Bank Taras Liesovyi in a commentary to Ukrinform.

According to Liesovyi, the official exchange rate of the U.S. dollar is unlikely to hit UAH 42, remaining approximately 1% lower than the 2025 initial exchange rate (UAH 42.02 for the U.S. dollar as of January 1, 2025).

“In addition, the National Bank will operate a fairly effective strategy on the market, which is aimed at balancing supply and demand. Thus, the current exchange rate changes will be minimal and rather predictable,” Liesovyi explained.

In his opinion, an important factor of stability will be the active position of farmers in the market, providing a high supply of the U.S. dollar. This will allow the regulator to reduce the volume of foreign exchange interventions to an acceptable level of USD 600-800 million per week.

Meanwhile, the exchange rate of the euro will depend on the global dollar/euro ratio. As estimated by the expert, it will remain in the range of 1.15-1.2.

“It is worth noting that, unlike the U.S. dollar, the exchange rate of the euro has increased by almost 10-12% since the beginning of the year. The initial exchange rate was UAH 43.68 for the euro, and during summer it rose by an average of 5%. At the same time, I would like to remind you that the exchange rate of the euro is formed precisely on the basis of international indicators of the dollar/euro pair and the corresponding hryvnia/dollar quotations in Ukraine,” Liesovyi added.

As emphasized by the expert, the National Bank will continue to monitor the situation, balancing supply and demand in the event of any threat. Since the foreign currency will not be in deficit, no sensational changes are expected.

On September 1-7, 2025, according to Liesovyi, the main characteristics of the foreign exchange market will be as follows: the foreign exchange corridors of UAH 41.6-42 for the U.S. dollar and UAH 48-49 for the euro (on the interbank market); UAH 41.6-42 for the U.S. dollar and UAH 48-49.5 for the euro (on the cash market).

The daily exchange rate fluctuations will go up to UAH 0.05-0.15 (on the interbank market), UAH 0.1-0.2 (commercial banks), and UAH 0.3 (exchange offices).

The difference between the buying/selling rates will remain within the previous limits, i.e. up to UAH 0.15 for the U.S. dollar and UAH 0.2 for the euro (on the interbank market), UAH 0.5-0.6 for the U.S. dollar and UAH 0.8-1 for the euro (commercial banks), and UAH 0.6-1 for the U.S. dollar and UAH 1-1.3 for the euro (exchange offices).

The difference in buying rates on the cash market will be UAH 0.2-0.3 for the U.S. dollar and UAH 0.3-0.5 for the euro (commercial banks), and UAH 0.3-0.5 for the U.S. dollar and UAH 0.5-0.7 for the euro (exchange offices).

The difference in selling rates on the cash market will be UAH 0.1-0.2 for the U.S. dollar and UAH 0.2-0.3 for the euro (commercial banks), and UAH 0.3-0.5 for the U.S. dollar and UAH 0.5 for the euro (exchange offices).

The average difference in foreign exchange rates on the interbank market and the cash market will be UAH 0.1-0.15.

The potential weekly exchange rate deviations are within 1-1.5%.

A reminder that, as of August 28, 2025, the official exchange rate of the Ukrainian hryvnia was set as follows: UAH 41.32 for the U.S. dollar (UAH 41.40 as of August 27, 2025); UAH 47.88 for the euro (UAH 48.26 as of August 27, 2025).