Intelligence reveals Russia’s planned scenario for autumn military exercises in Belarus

Oleh Ivashchenko, Chief of Ukraine’s Foreign Intelligence Service, said this in an interview with Ukrinform.

“We have all the relevant information regarding these exercises. Russia has already sent out some four dozen invitations to military representatives of other countries. They are wanting to make an international event out of this. According to the exercise scenario, the drills will simulate an operational episode of the confrontation between two coalitions of allied countries -- one led by Russia and the other by notional West. It is pretty clear who this is about. These are the countries that currently support Ukraine. Our European partners,” he said.

Regarding the possibility of Russia launching an attack on the Suwalki Corridor, the Baltic States, or Poland during these exercises, Ivashchenko pointed out that such scenarios are incorporated into nearly all Russian military drills.

“I remember year 2015… Since then, game plans for literally every Russo-Belarusian exercise involved establishing control over the Suwałki Gap. This is not a fantasy, but rather a part of their strategic scenarios. They are always working out a scenario where Kaliningrad comes under threat, NATO can seize control of that region, or a ‘color revolution’ of some kind can happen in Belarus. And then Russia ‘comes to the rescue’ – that is, deploys its forces. Such is the scenario. It’s for this purpose they trained their 1st Tank Army and the 20th Combined Arms Army. These forces, according to the plan, are supposed to reach Kaliningrad through the Suwałki Gap. Needless to say, this situation would create a direct threat to the Baltic countries,” he said.

As reported by Ukrinform, the Russian-Belarusian military exercise "West 2025" is scheduled to take place in mid-September, with over 13,000 personnel participating in the maneuvers.