Russian forces would be highly unlikely to make rapid advances if they captured Avdiivka – ISW

Russian forces would be highly unlikely to make rapid advances if they captured Avdiivka – ISW

Ukrinform
Russian forces would be highly unlikely to make rapid operationally significant advances from Avdiivka if they captured the settlement.

The Washington-based Institute for the Study of War said this in its latest report, according to Ukrinform.

“The potential Russian capture of Avdiivka would not be operationally significant and would likely only offer the Kremlin immediate informational and political victories,” ISW experts say.

Russian forces have expended a considerable amount of manpower and materiel on their effort to capture Avdiivka and will likely need to engage in a prolonged period of consolidation, reconstitution, and rest.

Read also: Supplies to Avdiivka and evacuation complicated – military

As noted, Russian forces initially attempted to operationally encircle Ukrainian forces in Avdiivka at the start of the localized offensive effort in October 2023, but gradually shifted towards fighting through the settlement in a turning movement after failing to conduct the rapid maneuver required for envelopment or encirclement.

ISW experts note that Ukrainian forces have long fortified many of the surrounding settlements, which Russian forces are also struggling to capture.

The nearest relatively large settlements in the area are at least 30 kilometers west of Avdiivka, and Russian forces have not shown that they can conduct the rapid mechanized forward movement that would be required to reach these settlements in the near or even medium-term, according to ISW experts.

“Russian forces have expended a considerable amount of manpower and materiel on their effort to capture Avdiivka and will likely need to engage in a prolonged period of consolidation, reconstitution, and rest before attempting a further concerted offensive effort in the area,” ISW experts believe.

In view of this, ISW suggests that the potential Russian capture of Avdiivka at most would set conditions for further “limited tactical gains”.

As reported, the Defense Forces in the Avdiivka sector repelled 28 enemy attacks in the Avdiivka and Lastochkyne areas over the past day. The General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces stated that "planned reinforcement of units and maneuvers of troops in threatened areas" are underway.

Photo by Kostiantyn and Vlada Liberov

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