NBU downgrades 2026 GDP growth forecast
National Bank of Ukraine Governor Andriy Pyshnyy stated this at a briefing, an Ukrinform correspondent reported.
According to Pyshnyy, economic activity slowed at the start of 2026, primarily due to Russian attacks on energy infrastructure and logistics facilities during an exceptionally cold winter.
“Additional pressure came from restrained budget policy amid delays in external aid inflows. Economic activity revived somewhat as energy shortages eased in spring, but overall, in Q1 real GDP growth slowed to 0.2% year‑on‑year, according to NBU estimates,” Pyshnyy noted.
In his view, catching up on budget spending as international assistance arrives will help stimulate economic activity over the coming months.
“However, given weaker Q1 results, the still fragile state of the energy system, and accumulating negative economic effects from the war in the Middle East, the NBU has downgraded its 2026 GDP growth forecast to 1.3%,” Pyshnyy said.
NBU analysts expect gradual normalization of Ukraine’s economic environment and easing geopolitical tensions to accelerate real GDP growth to 2.8–3.7% in 2027–2028. This will be driven by resilient consumer demand, stronger investment activity, recovery of the energy system, and larger harvests.
As reported, Ukraine’s real GDP grew by 1.8% in 2025, according to the State Statistics Service. In its January forecast, the NBU had projected 2026 growth at the same level of 1.8%.
