Russia may try to test NATO’s unity in Black Sea, says Czech analyst
This possibility was suggested in an interview with Ukrinform by Czech analyst, Vice-Rector of CERVO University in Prague, former Czech government adviser on national security, and diplomat Tomáš Pojar.
According to the expert, we always focus on the idea that if Russia ever decides to test NATO’s unity, it will do so specifically in the Baltics. Indeed, the Baltic states have certain geographical vulnerabilities and are relatively small countries, Pojar noted, but he emphasized that these states are quite well-prepared today.
“Perhaps it is worth considering whether such a test might take place somewhere else entirely. For example, the Black Sea region could be even more interesting from this perspective. Some states there might be perceived as an easier target—for example, Bulgaria,” notes the former security adviser to the Czech government and prime minister.
Bulgaria, he explains, is a NATO member that spends significantly less on defense than the Baltic states. Furthermore, the allies pay less attention to it than to the Baltics. And on top of that, there has been noticeable political instability there for quite some time, with elections held quite frequently in recent years.
“From an economic perspective, it is one of the poorest countries in the European Union. Therefore, from Moscow’s perspective, Bulgaria may seem like a place where it would be easier to ‘test’ something than in the Baltics,” the analyst added, urging people to look at the situation more broadly and assume that if a test of NATO or European security were ever to take place in some way, it would not necessarily be where we imagine it today.
At the same time, Pojar noted that such a potential test or operation would follow the same scenario as in Ukraine. This testing could take other forms—hybrid, political, economic, or some new ones.
As reported, experts are warning of three scenarios for a NATO test involving an attack on a Baltic country: hybrid provocation following the Crimean scenario, the seizure of the Suwałki Gap, or a combination of hybrid provocation and a direct attack.
In addition, the Swedish Chief of Defense Staff and Michael Claesson recently warned of a possible Russian attack on the Baltic Sea islands in the near future, aimed at sowing discord within the Alliance and exposing its weaknesses.
