Explosion incident near Serbian gas pipeline shows signs of Russian provocation – military expert
This opinion was expressed to The Guardian by Major General and founder of the Andromeda company, Mykola Zentsev, Ukrinform reports.
Despite statements by Serbian and Hungarian authorities about a “threat to energy sovereignty,” weapons specialists question whether there was any real intent to carry out sabotage.
According to Zentsev, calculations conducted by his company showed that the four kilograms of explosives seized by the Serbian military security service in the northern city of Kanjiža could not have seriously damaged the pipeline.
Andromeda experts analyzed the characteristics of the pipeline, which delivers Russian gas to Hungary via Turkey, Bulgaria, and Serbia, and calculated the amount of explosives that could theoretically cause serious damage.
Zentsev noted that a significantly larger quantity would have been required. “Four kilograms is not sufficient to put the gas pipeline to a standstill,” he said.
He stressed that even if optimally placed, 4 kg of plastic explosive “would likely result only in localized damage or limited penetration, which could be repaired within a few days without causing long-term disruption of supply.”
“This does not align with the objective of a classical act of sabotage, which aims to disable infrastructure for weeks or months,” Zentsev emphasized, supporting “the conclusion that incident was likely a provocation.”
He added that, based on publicly available evidence, the explosives were found several hundred meters from the pipeline, and no attempts to attach them directly to the facility were recorded. The expert also suggested that the incident was likely a false-flag operation carried out by Russian military intelligence (GRU).
“This meets the standards of the GRU,” Zentsev added, highlighting the military nature of the incident.
In his view, the main beneficiaries were likely “the current Hungarian government, which gains an additional political advantage ahead of elections, and Russia, which seeks to use such incidents to discredit Ukraine in the eyes of the civilized world.”
As reported, Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić said on April 5 that police had discovered explosives near the Balkan Stream pipeline, which carries Russian gas to Serbia and Hungary.
Ukrainian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Heorhii Tykhyi stated that Kyiv has no connection to the incident in Serbia.
The head of Serbian intelligence also said that Ukraine was not behind the explosives found near the TurkStream pipeline, which connects Serbia and Hungary.
Hungary is set to hold parliamentary election on Sunday, April 12. According to polls, the center-right Tisza party led by Péter Magyar has widened its lead over Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s ruling Fidesz party.
Experts suggest that Orbán may resort to provocations, a state of emergency, or electoral manipulation to avoid defeat.
Illustrative photo: Freepik
