Orbán vs. Magyar: Former MP outlines three scenarios after Hungary’s election

This was written by Zsuzsanna Szelényi, a research fellow at the Democracy Institute of Central European University and a former member of the Hungarian parliament, in an article for the Carnegie Europe think tank, Ukrinform reports.

“Tisza, the insurgent party led by Péter Magyar, has for some time enjoyed a meaningful lead over the ruling party of Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, Fidesz. In a democratic political system, such a gap would ordinarily suggest an imminent transfer of power. But this is no longer an ordinary political system,” Szelényi argues.

She emphasizes that over 16 years in power, Orbán has dismantled the separation of powers and institutional neutrality.

“State institutions, public money, regulatory authority, and government-affiliated media no longer function as neutral arbiters; they operate as instruments of Fidesz’s political survival,” the expert explains.

Regarding the outcome of the April 12 elections, Szelényi outlines three possible scenarios.

“The biggest jolt to Hungary’s distorted system would be a Tisza supermajority, which could convert a relatively modest popular advantage into decisive institutional control. That is the cleanest route to a transfer of power, because so many levers of governance remain constitutionally or administratively insulated by long-term Fidesz appointments,” she notes.

A Tisza victory without such a mandate could lead to governmental paralysis and a struggle between electoral legitimacy and entrenched state power, she explains.

“This dynamic could also be reflected in the second possibility: a simple majority for the opposition that could prove almost unworkable,” the former lawmaker wrote.

Finally, it is possible that Tisza wins more votes, but Fidesz, together with the far-right Our Homeland Movement, could form a coalition and secure a parliamentary majority, Szelényi said.

She believes that even in the event of an opposition victory, desired changes may not come quickly.

“On rule-of-law questions, corruption, and relations with Brussels, the shift would likely be immediate and substantial. A Magyar-led Hungary would move quickly to cooperate with the European Union, join the European Public Prosecutor’s Office, and try to unlock frozen funds. But on migration, energy, and even support for Ukraine, things would require more time,” she wrote. “Years of anti-Ukrainian messaging and the opacity of Hungary’s relationship with Russian energy mean that a change of posture would be politically and administratively difficult in a short period of time.”

At the same time, regardless of the election outcome, Hungarian politics will not return to its previous normal, the expert argues.

“Even if Fidesz wins again, it may no longer be able to rule with the same confidence or authority, because it no longer appears to command the active consent of a majority. In that sense, the election is not only about a change of government; it is about the erosion of the regime’s social legitimacy,” Szelényi concludes.

Earlier, Szelényi stated that Prime Minister Viktor Orbán portrays Ukraine not as a victim of Russian aggression, but as a source of danger for his country.

As Ukrinform reported, Viktor Orbán has once again claimed that Ukraine allegedly interferes with his country’s internal affairs and criticized the Ukrainian authorities and President Volodymyr Zelensky.

The leader of Hungary’s opposition Tisza party, Péter Magyar, said that the upcoming parliamentary elections will effectively be a referendum on the country’s foreign policy direction – whether to return to democratic Europe or move toward an authoritarian model.

Photo: AA