Potential Trump-Lukashenko deal sparks new security concerns for Ukraine – expert

This assessment was given to Ukrinform by Yaroslav Chornohor, Director of the Russian and Belarusian Studies Program at the Foreign Policy Council “Ukrainian Prism”.

“This scenario (a potential political rapprochement between Trump and Lukashenko) is realistic and potentially dangerous for Ukraine, albeit with some important limitations. Regarding the partial easing of Minsk’s international isolation, that is underway. It will allow Lukashenko’s regime to ‘breathe’ economically and creates additional security risks for Ukraine. At the same time, this does not mean that Belarus is leaving Kremlin control,” Chornohor said.

He noted that Belarus is currently undergoing partial legitimization, which may open new communication channels, reduce its diplomatic isolation, and revive economic contacts. The lifting of sanctions in the potash sector “clearly indicates some plans by the United States or American business.”

This, in turn, will give Minsk some economic strengthening, allow the regime to stabilize, and increase foreign currency inflows.

Chornohor emphasized that closer ties with the US will not weaken Belarus’s connection to Russia.

“On the contrary, it indirectly strengthens this alliance… Minsk can maintain relations with Moscow and even use some of the regime’s concessions to benefit Russia. Much depends on what happens next. If the US makes further agreements with Minsk, Belarus could become a channel for Russian goods or a hub for financial operations in the interests of both the Minsk and Moscow regimes,” he predicted.

He added that undermining the sanctions regime would strengthen the economic resilience of Russia and its satellite Belarus. The expert also noted that lifting sanctions in the potash sector activates logistics and transit, creating risks of restored transport corridors through Belarus and potential pressure on Ukraine to normalize relations with Lukashenko’s regime.

“Again, Russia could use this transit for its own interests. None of this reduces our security risks; if anything, they could increase, because the regimes become more economically stable while Belarus’s military integration with Russia remains intact. At the same time, the West, at least partially, turns a blind eye to these risks, possibly because there may be political deals,” Chornohor suggested.

Regarding potential European actions, he noted that negotiations with Belarus are ongoing, particularly in the context of border restrictions imposed by Poland and Lithuania.

He said it is currently difficult to predict how the EU will act – whether it will continue to maintain Minsk’s isolation and economic sanctions, or decide that it “needs to gain some benefit as well.”

“For now, the European Union is holding its ground,” Chornohor added.

As previously reported by Ukrinform, US authorities lifted sanctions from Belaruskaliy company, Belinvestbank, and the Ministry of Finance of Belarus.

US Special Envoy to Belarus John Coale suggested that the self-proclaimed President of Belarus, Aleksxandr Lukashenko, could visit the United States.