Kremlin attempting to manipulate Trump administration – ISW

According to Ukrinform, this was reported in an assessment by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

The report points to a September 18 statement by Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, in which he claimed that President Trump seeks to “remove the topic of Ukraine” from the U.S.–Russia agenda in order to “normalize” bilateral economic, technological, and other relations. Earlier, Lavrov also said that attempts to “entice” Vladimir Putin into economic deals with the United States will not stop the war.

“The Kremlin is attempting to push Trump to separate the war in Ukraine from discussions about U.S.-Russian bilateral relations, particularly in the economic sphere. The Kremlin likely aims to simultaneously continue its war in Ukraine while alleviating the pressure that existing and possible future sanctions are putting on the Russian economy, particularly sanctions targeting the energy revenues that largely fund the war,” ISW analysts assessed.

The report adds that the Kremlin is using Kirill Dmitriev, the CEO of the Russian Direct Investment Fund, to promote expanded U.S.–Russia business relations in hopes to gain concessions from the Trump administration on Ukraine.

At the same time, ISW reiterates that a Russian victory in the war is not inevitable, and that Ukraine and the West can leverage several key Russian vulnerabilities to force Putin into genuine negotiations. Russia’s battlefield gains in 2025 have come at high cost: its forces advanced slowly, while suffering disproportionately heavy losses compared to the limited territory seized. Analysts also highlight that Putin’s mismanagement of the Russian economy throughout the war has fueled unsustainable wartime spending, rising inflation, and significant labor shortages.

“Putin’s focus on defense spending and the buildup of Russia’s defense industrial base (DIB) has notably come at the expense of the civilian economic sectors. Russia’s ability to fund its war machine is in part reliant on Russian oil exports, which fund a significant portion of Russia’s federal revenues. U.S. President Donald Trump noted these Russian weaknesses, stating on September 18 that Russia is incurring more losses in the war than Ukraine and that Putin will have to “drop out” of the war should oil prices come down,” the ISW report states.

As reported, President Trump said he does not consider the current moment suitable for imposing new sanctions on Russia but does not rule out tougher measures in the future. Earlier, he expressed confidence that cutting off European purchases of Russian oil would drive prices down and force Putin to end the war.

Photo: Office of the President of Ukraine