US will not cut off aid to Ukraine completely, but format will change – political analyst
Political analyst Ihor Reiterovych said this in an interview with Ukrinform.
"It's not so much about halting aid as it is about ending it in its current form. Yes, there is still a certain buffer — roughly until August. But we should be honest: there will be no new aid packages like those passed under Biden," the expert said.
According to him, the minimum Ukraine must retain in its cooperation with the U.S. is access to American intelligence — even if military supplies are cut.
"This is a key point. Even if direct military assistance drops to zero, we must retain access to U.S. intelligence data. This is critically important for our defense and strategic planning overall," Reiterovych said.
He noted that even in the most pessimistic scenarios, Washington is not discussing a complete withdrawal from intelligence cooperation. However, he said that instead of "gifts," there would be a "weapons-for-money" arrangement.
"Under Trump, the formula will be simple: 'money in exchange for weapons.' Either Ukraine pays directly, or Europe transfers funds to the U.S., and the U.S. supplies the weapons. The kind of non-repayable aid packages we got under Biden are unlikely to return," he said.
The expert did not rule out that in the event of unforeseen developments — a so-called "black swan" — Trump could agree to restore large-scale support. But even in that case, it would likely take the form of a lend-lease program — deliveries with deferred payment.
"There's another theoretical tool — an agreement on natural resources, which could provide us with weapons in exchange for access to critical minerals. But it seems Trump no longer mentions it — it has simply disappeared from his radar," Reiterovych said.
The expert stressed that Ukraine would have to adapt to a different logic of war.
"It will be a different logic — less ideological, more market-based. We need to be ready either to pay ourselves or rely on Europe to pay for us," Reiterovych said.
