Rise of "F-16 Coalition", Warsaw flexing its muscles and Belarusian asymmetric initiatives
The most powerful military parade since the end of the Cold War took place in Warsaw. Alexander Lukashenko and Zenon Pozniak launched interesting, albeit different, initiatives. Chinese Defense Minister Li Shangfu made an inspection tour of the post-Soviet space.
The issue of the transfer of F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine is gradually becoming more and more realistic in terms of implementation. Volodymyr Zelensky's visit to the Netherlands and Denmark made it possible to talk about the quantitative (42 aircraft) and temporal (the first of them should be in Ukraine by the end of 2023) aspects of the transfer. On the eve of the Ukrainian president's visit, the White House confirmed its agreement to transfer the fighter jets to the Ukrainian Air Force. However, we should also talk about the realization by representatives of our Western allies that the Russian-Ukrainian war is dragging on. It is worth mentioning the unexpected statement of the Euro-Atlantic official Stefan Jensen, who decided to offer Ukraine, on behalf of the Alliance, to exchange the abandonment of the occupied territories for NATO membership. In fact, both the context of this assumption and its realism differ significantly from the actual state of affairs, and it is necessary to realize that the war in the modern world is not only about territories, but also about moods and worldview.
This is obviously understood by the Polish authorities, who held the most powerful military parade in the last 30 years in honor of Polish Army Day. Samples of Polish and imported military equipment paraded through Warsaw, as if to confirm Defense Minister Mariusz Blaszczak's claim that the Polish army will become the largest and most powerful in Europe. During the festive ceremonies, President Andrzej Duda made it clear that Poland supports Ukraine, but also has its own national interests. Military construction in Poland has a strong political basis, and now it is one of the elements of the election campaign, allowing the ruling PiS party to demonstrate its attitude not only to Russia but also to Germany. It is no coincidence that Poland is acting as a moderator in countering possible provocations from Belarus, consolidating the Baltic states around it. Unfortunately, without involving Ukraine.
Meanwhile, Belarusian politicians are trying to get involved in the Ukrainian context. The elder of the Belarusian opposition, Zenon Pozniak, sent a letter to Volodymyr Zelensky and Alexander Lukashenko, offering to exchange two political prisoners of the Lukashenko regime (journalist Denis Ivashin and mother of many children Olha Zolotar) for two Belarusian citizens who fought on the side of the Rusists and were taken prisoner by Ukraine. It is surprising that an experienced politician does not realize that it is short-sighted to put a democratically elected president and a self-proclaimed "father of the nation" on the same level. Lukashenko "answered" the public with an interview with Diana Panchenko, a journalist known for her pro-Russian views. It is noteworthy because the background for eulogies for Putin and calls for an end to hostilities between Russia and Ukraine right now are the "revelations" about the participation of Belarusian experts in drafting the Constitution of Ukraine. Lukashenko is confidently gaining a place in the market of parallel reality repeaters.
Last week, Chinese Defense Minister Li Shangfu paid a visit to Russia and Belarus, which looks more like an inspection trip of an authorized representative of the overlord through vassal territories. Obviously, in Moscow and Minsk, the head of China's military department discussed a wide range of issues related to the current situation, including the prospects of the actual appearance of Russian nuclear weapons on the territory of Belarus.
Yevhen MAGDA, Institute of World Policy
The first photo: AP
