Russia's import substitution plans fail due to critical technological dependence, intelligence reports

According to Ukrinform, the Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine reported this.

“Internal assessments by the ministry of economic development of the rf show that the economy remains critically dependent on imports of high-tech products, despite the kremlin’s official statements about accelerated import substitution. This undermines the realism of the six-year plan to transform the economy by 2030, which envisages achieving 70-90% technological independence in strategic sectors, from machine building and aviation to energy engineering and chemical industry,” the Foreign Intelligence Service stated.

Actual indicators lag significantly behind the declared goals. Technological independence in high-speed rail transport is only 15%; in shipbuilding and energy, 30%; in the production of unmanned systems, 40%; and in industrial engineering, about 65%.

Restrictions on access to Western technologies have not reduced import dependence, but only changed its structure: China's share in the supply of microchips to Russia has grown to about 90%, creating new long-term risks of unilateral dependence.

“Given the significant gap between plans and reality, as well as limited production, technological, and human resources, achieving the declared level of technological independence by 2030 is highly unlikely. The current dynamics indicate that Russia’s course towards ‘technological sovereignty’ is largely declarative in nature and is not supported by the existing capabilities of the economy,” the FISU claimed.

As reported by Ukrinform, the Russian economy is entering a phase of “expensive money,” which is becoming the new norm amid the war against Ukraine and protracted macroeconomic instability.

Photo: FISU