Investment activity declining, industrial modernization stalling in Russia, FISU reports

This was reported by the Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine (FISU), according to Ukrinform.

By the end of 2025, Russia’s foreign trade showed further degradation amid unfavorable price conditions and continuing restrictions.

Key factors included a drop in global energy prices and the impact of oil production quotas under OPEC+ agreements, which directly hit the country’s main source of foreign exchange earnings.

The share of fuel and energy products in the export structure declined to 54.9% from 61.6% a year earlier, underscoring the weakening of the energy sector. An additional negative signal was a 10.3% drop in exports of food products and agricultural raw materials, indicating a loss of positions even in segments previously considered relatively resilient.

“The decline in imports was first of all due to an 8.7 % decrease in imports of investment goods – machinery, equipment, and vehicles. This directly indicates a slowdown in investment activity and a deterioration in the prospects for industrial modernization,” the intelligence service noted.

Against this backdrop, growth in imports of mass consumer goods, particularly food products (+14.2%) and chemical industry products (+2.6%), appears to be a forced compensation for internal imbalances rather than a sign of economic recovery.

China remains Russia’s largest trading partner, accounting for about 27% of exports and 45% of imports, in line with 2024 levels. At the same time, bilateral trade with China recorded a 7.6% decline in oil exports and an 11% drop in coal exports, further weakening Moscow’s position even in this key direction.

According to intelligence officials, these indicators reflect a gradual and painful structural transformation of the Russian economy under pressure from Western sanctions.

A significant decline in oil and gas exports reduces foreign exchange earnings and increases the vulnerability of the federal budget to market fluctuations. The growth in exports of chemical products and metals is limited and temporary in nature and cannot compensate for the losses in the energy sector.

At the same time, the decline in imports of industrial equipment will hamper industrial renewal and delay economic recovery. Growing dependence on Beijing further reinforces an asymmetric foreign trade model, in which China increasingly serves not as a sales market but as Russia’s main supplier of industrial products.

As previously reported by Ukrinform, Russia’s economy is rapidly heading toward recession – a fact acknowledged even by analytical structures close to the Kremlin.

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