World Bank downgrades Ukraine’s GDP growth forecast for 2026

According to Ukrinform, these figures were released in the Bank’s economic update on October 7.

The World Bank has maintained its forecast for Ukraine’s economic growth at 2% for this year, unchanged from its June projection.

At the same time, the Bank revised its forecast for Ukraine’s GDP growth over the next two years.

The World Bank estimates that Ukraine’s economy will grow by 2.2% in 2026 (which is 3.2% lower than the June forecast) and increase by 5% in 2027 (0.5% higher than the June projection).

“The economic expansion in Ukraine is likely to slow to 2 percent in 2025 from 2.9 percent in 2024 as Russia’s prolonged invasion affects investment and business activity. Gas imports reached their highest level in nearly two years as infrastructure damage constrained domestic production,” the report says.

As noted, the slowdown in Ukraine’s GDP growth was driven by weaker agricultural exports, adverse weather conditions, and the European Union’s reinstatement of pre-invasion trade regulations, which imposed restrictions on key Ukrainian agricultural and food product exports.

“During the first half of 2025, the value of exports dropped by almost 5 percent amid a contraction of exports to the European Union, the destination of almost 60 percent of Ukraine’s shipments abroad,” the Bank added.

As reported by Ukrinform, in later September, Minister of Economy, Environment, and Agriculture Oleksii Sobolev stated that Ukraine’s GDP growth in 2025 is expected to reach 2%, driven by the development of industry, manufacturing, energy, and the agricultural sector.

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