Russian strike on Lviv region with Oreshnik missile a reminder to West of nuclear threat – expert

Fabian Hoffmann, a Doctoral Research Fellow at the Oslo Nuclear Project (ONP), University of Oslo, and an expert in missile technologies, said this in a comment to Ukrinform.

"Most likely this is some signaling act that could be related to the last two weeks, which were, from a Russian perspective, not super productive or pleasant, with what's happening in Venezuela where a Russian allied regime was decapitated, with the peace negotiation process, with Trump flip-flopping again, this time more in the direction of counter-Russia," Hoffmann said.

In his opinion, Russia is likely trying to send the message: "Hey, we're still here, we're still a major threat."

"Given that Oreshnik, the MIRV technology [a multiple independently targetable reentry vehicle], is directly associated with nuclear weapons, it's about projecting a nuclear threat, signaling that this war can still escalate and get out of hand and, therefore, for all of us the best thing to do would be to just settle it," the expert said.

According to him, Russia is thus hinting that a settlement should be reached on its terms.

Hoffmann also does not rule out that Russia may have planned the strike in advance.

At the same time, in his opinion, this weapon system is not effective against most targets. Such weapons may be used against facilities like large airbases, since six or nine inert reentry vehicles can significantly damage a runway and prevent aircraft from taking off.

"But still, [this strike is] tremendously expensive, so cost-ineffective," the missile technology expert said.

However, when it comes to strikes on critical civilian infrastructure, there are other things that Russia can do that are "a lot more productive and effective" from a Russian perspective, Hoffmann said.

"There are other weapons in their arsenal, like land attack cruise missiles, and then especially Kinzhal and short-range ballistic missiles, like the 9M723, the Iskander-M, so these things are a lot better at taking out critical infrastructure targets," he said.

Hoffmann stressed that Russia's use of Oreshnik has a "cognitive element that is not attached to other weapon systems like an Iskander-M, like a Kh-101 cruise missiles" – meaning an attempt to influence the mindset of the target audience.

As reported, the Russian Defense Ministry stated that on the night of January 8-9, Ukraine was attacked, among other weapons, with an Oreshnik medium-range ballistic missile. The ministry claimed this was in response to an alleged attack on Putin's residence in Valdai on the night of December 28-29, 2025.

Ukraine's Air Force Command West reported that the ballistic missile that struck Lviv on January 8 was traveling at a speed of 13,000 kilometers per hour. The exact missile type will be determined after all its components are examined.

According to Air Force spokesperson Colonel Yurii Ihnat, Russia may have launched the missile at the Lviv region from the Kapustin Yar testing range in the Astrakhan region, where the Oreshnik system is reportedly based.

Ukraine will initiate an emergency meeting of the UN Security Council, a meeting of the NATO-Ukraine Council, and responses within the EU, Council of Europe, and OSCE regarding Russia's use of a medium-range ballistic missile against the Lviv region.

Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha stated that such a strike near the borders of the EU and NATO posed a serious security threat to the European continent and a test for the transatlantic community.