Russia's fuel market will become even more vulnerable in 2026 - intel
According to Ukrinform, this was reported by the Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine.
"In 2025, price growth in Russia's fuel market exceeded normal inflation trends: retail prices for gasoline rose by 10.8% and diesel fuel by 8%, with officially declared inflation at 5.6%. The key factor was unscheduled repairs at oil refineries, which led to a significant reduction in production," the Foreign Intelligence Service noted.
In an attempt to normalize the market, the Russian authorities were forced not only to maintain but also to extend the ban on gasoline exports, initially until September 30, 2025, and later until February 28, 2026.
An additional blow to the oil refining economy was the reduction in state support – payments under the damper mechanism for the first 11 months of 2025 were halved. In response, vertically integrated companies compensated for their losses through the domestic market: in November 2025, gasoline producer prices rose by 14.5% compared to the previous year, and retail prices rose by 12.8%.
Against this backdrop, the fall in world oil prices posed an additional risk.
The FISoUA stressed that companies would continue to try to pass on losses from raw material exports to domestic consumers by raising gasoline and diesel prices.
"Even despite a partial recovery in production, Russia's fuel industry remains unstable. In 2026, the market will again face price spikes regardless of the dynamics of petroleum product output. The vulnerability of the system will only increase due to a combination of administrative restrictions, financial pressure, and external conditions," the FISoUA noted.
As reported by Ukrinform, Russia's vehicle fleet continues to age due to rising repair costs, a shortage of spare parts, and low sales of new cars.
Illustrative photo
