Ukrainian intel chief predicts when Russia could be ready to attack Europe

This was stated by Head of the Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine Oleh Ivashchenko in an interview with Ukrinform.

“According to our expectations, which are shared by our European colleagues, after the end of hostilities, it will take from two to four years for Russia to regenerate its combat capability. If the sanctions are lifted, the military modernization process [in Russia] will gain momentum. In other words, two to four years will pass after the war comes to an end, and Russia will be technically and technologically ready for a new aggression – that time around against Europe,” he said.

Ivashchenko noted that Russia aims for full control over Ukraine and influence over other post-Soviet countries.

“But it is no longer just a possibility but a matter of time as to who will be next. Poland, the Baltic countries, and Northern Europe are at risk. Our analysts no longer have doubts about whether Russia will be bold enough to attack other countries or not. The question is different: when and from where?” the intelligence chief added.

Ivashchenko also commented on reports that Russia is building new railway tracks along its borders with Finland and Norway, and south of St. Petersburg to the Estonian border.

“Russia is preparing. They are organizing new Leningrad Military District, and this is not about the defense but about the offense. There will be a new operational axis running from the Kola Peninsula to Finland. New military bases are being built along this axis. As regards the new railway, this is part of a plan to expand the infrastructure that could be used both for civilian and military purposes,” he explained.

When asked what Russia is going to do with its million-strong army if the war in Ukraine is put on hold, Ivashchenko replied: “Russia has no intention of ending this war. In their minds, they are restoring the Soviet Union by the hands of the army. They are organizing new military districts and army divisions, 13 divisions, to be precise. True, they are experiencing problems with the shortage of personnel and equipment. But that said, 1,000–1,200 new recruits sign contracts each single day. This amount of mobilization is not intended for peace, but is a preparation for something other than peace.”

He also emphasized that Russia’s defense-industrial complex is currently the only sector of the Russian economy showing a growth trend, and if it stops, the entire economy could crack.

Additionally, he said war remains a tool for the Kremlin to hold on to power.

As Ukrinform previously reported, in March this year, Bruno Kahl, head of Germany’s Federal Intelligence Service (BND), stated that Russia’s attack on Europe will depend directly on how quickly the war in Ukraine ends. If it ends sooner, Russian aggression toward Europe could also begin sooner than expected. Kahl predicted that a direct conflict between Russia and NATO could occur by 2030.