Ukraine may fail against Russia if United States does not provide more aid – CNN

The relevant statement was made by CNN, referring to multiple U.S. and European officials.

According to the publication, Western intelligence agencies are currently calculating how long Ukraine could hold out without U.S. and NATO help. One senior U.S. military official estimated months, with a worst-case scenario of a significant setback or even defeat by summer 2024.

“There is no guarantee of success with us, but they are certain to fail without us,” a senior US military official said.

The most immediate concern is the impact on Ukraine’s ongoing counteroffensive in the east and south, where Ukrainian forces have struggled to make significant forward progress even when U.S. support was still coming.

“If looking at taking and holding further territory, it is hard to see how that could succeed without continued U.S. support,” one European diplomat noted.

Additionally, Western officials fear the loss or further delay of U.S. support will impact aid from its allies.

Without additional U.S. aid, Western officials assess that Ukraine would first run out of long-range missiles, then air defense missiles and later artillery ammunition and short-range missiles such as shoulder-fired Javelin anti-tank missiles and Stinger anti-aircraft missiles.

Ukrainian forces are already rationing ammunition, U.S. and Ukrainian officials told CNN, as Russian forces fire back at a ratio of five to seven times greater than Ukrainian forces are able to.

A senior Ukrainian military official told CNN that Ukrainian commanders believe the impact on their firepower has led to additional Ukrainian casualties.