Former vice president of Germany’s BND: All Western intelligence agencies underestimate Ukrainian resistance
This view was expressed in an interview with Ukrinform by BND Vice President Arndt Freytag von Loringhoven.
“Indeed, the vast majority of European intelligence agencies did not expect a full-scale invasion with an advance on Kyiv. This applies not only to Germany but also to many other countries," he said.
According to the former BND vice president, although the concentration of Russian troops near the Ukrainian border was evident, most intelligence agencies assumed only a limited-scale scenario.
“Of course, everyone was aware that Russia had amassed a large number of troops around Ukraine. Therefore, many assumed the possibility of a regionally limited attack, but not necessarily a full-scale invasion,” said Loringhoven.
He has an explanation for why European intelligence services, including the BND, were more skeptical than their American and British counterparts: “One reason, in my opinion, was that the Americans and British only partially shared their very specific intelligence. The most sensitive data was not shared in full—primarily, the conclusions drawn from it were disseminated."
At the same time, regarding the duration of the war itself, “not only European intelligence agencies but also American and British ones were wrong,” Loringhoven acknowledged. He cites the underestimation of Ukrainian resistance as the main reason.
“We all miscalculated on this issue. First and foremost, this is due to a significant underestimation of Ukrainian resilience, the public’s readiness to defend the country, and the nation's political leadership. In this sense, we are talking about a collective failure of Western—and to some extent other—intelligence agencies,” stated the former vice president of the BND.
As reported, The Guardian wrote that the U.S. CIA and British intelligence agency MI6 had foreseen the very fact of Russia’s invasion and warned Europeans and Ukraine about it, but significantly overestimated the effectiveness of the Russian army and underestimated Ukraine’s ability to defend itself.
