Trump rules out immediate Iran strike but may be preparing attack, French expert says
This was stated by French Middle East expert Thierry Coville in an interview with a Ukrinform correspondent.
"There is a large lobby, consisting of foreign opponents of the regime, in particular royalists, who want this attack. On the other hand, many opposition figures say that foreign military intervention has never led to democracy in the region. But perhaps Trump is going to act after all. The US is now returning troops to the region, so perhaps he is pretending to do nothing, but in fact will attack," says Coville.
According to the expert, military advisers have most likely explained to Trump all the possible risks of such an intervention. Including the possibility that Xamenei's regime could attack US bases in the region with its ballistic missiles.
"Let's imagine that Trump decides to attack, for example, a strategic nuclear base in the Aran-e Bigdoleh area (central part), or to carry out a total attack to destroy the political leadership itself. But if his goal is to promote the transition to democracy, we have already seen in this region what disasters this can lead to. I am referring to Iraq and Afghanistan. There is also a risk of a nationalist reaction, even against the backdrop of a political crisis, as a large proportion of Iranians are still opposed to intervention," he explained.
Coville believes that Iran's neighbors also fear the risks of a prolonged civil war, which would lead to millions of refugees and destabilize the entire region.
"Iran will be deeply destabilized because, according to the authorities, there are Kurds in Iran — Kurdish militants who came from Iraq to help the demonstrators. But it is also clear that Kurdish parties will not stand aside, because there are separatist movements in the southeast, so neighboring countries are very afraid of general destabilization, because civil war will inevitably also lead to millions of refugees. Iran also has about 500 kilograms of uranium with a 60% enrichment level. So can we afford to destabilize a country that has several hundred kilograms of enriched uranium that can be used to make atomic bombs?" Coville said.
Photo: OP
