Europe should take threat from Belarus seriously – German MP

This was stated in a comment to Ukrinform by Bundestag member Roderich Kiesewetter.

“We must take the threat coming from Belarus very seriously. Belarus currently plays a certain role for Russia, particularly in cognitive and hybrid warfare, as evidenced by threats related to the planned deployment of Oreshnik missiles and Belarus’s role in destabilization through migration. On the other hand, Russia also wants to make it clear through such troop deployments that it considers Belarus an integral part of its territory, rather than a sovereign entity,” said the former Bundeswehr officer.

He recalled that Belarus, due to its geographical location, is a key zone, as demonstrated by the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

Kiesewetter noted that political blackmail and the creation of a threatening atmosphere are already occurring under Russia’s control, as Russia also threatens Europe from Kaliningrad.

“This is primarily cognitive warfare. Nevertheless, we must not ignore the possibility that an attack on NATO could occur, albeit very limited, as part of a multidomain operation, the primary goal of which is to divide NATO and the EU, and undermine deterrence. The increase of Russian presence in Belarus could indicate such an intent,” said the German politician. 

He called the situation in Ukraine decisive. According to him, if Ukraine holds and can push back Russia, the scenario of an attack becomes less realistic. Therefore, partners need to provide Ukraine with broader and more robust support in their own security interests to deter Russia, Kiesewetter emphasized.

He believes NATO can repel an attack “if it has the proper resolve, a sense of urgency, and reacts with absolute determination.”

“However, if we consistently accept hybrid attacks without response, Russia will feel emboldened… Significant efforts are being made to strengthen deterrence. Yet the most effective approach is to support Ukraine in such a way that it pushes back Russia. The next two years are critical for security, as Russia will not wait for Europe to increase its military spending significantly. At present, Ukraine is the only factor restraining Russia,” Kiesewetter said.

He noted that Russia views itself as at war with the entire West and is preparing strategically, through targeted rearmament—both in personnel and equipment—for confrontation. Recruitment and mobilization indicators in Russia also suggest that its imperial ambitions go beyond Ukraine.

“Russia has prepared for a protracted war and created a military economy aimed at a larger-scale conflict,” the German parliamentarian concluded.

Previously, media outlets citing Roderich Kiesewetter provided inaccurate information about the number of Russian soldiers on Belarusian territory.

Kiesewetter’s Bundestag office explained to Ukrinform that a calculation error occurred. When speaking about the three corps, he used NATO’s scale, but a Russian corps is significantly smaller. The actual number is likely between 100,000 and 150,000 soldiers. The office expressed regret that the misinformation quickly spread and caused significant concern among many people, including in Lithuania.

As reported, security experts warn of the possibility of a Russian attack on a European NATO country by 2029.

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