Moscow preparing Russians for falling living standards amid record budget deficit, FISU reports

This was reported on Telegram by the Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine, according to Ukrinform.

According to the report, to cover the funding shortfall, the Kremlin plans to raise taxes and cut social benefits, while using senators and regional governors as “lightning rods” to absorb the bulk of public criticism.

Russia officially plans to increase VAT from 20% to 22%, lower the threshold for simplified taxation, and review benefits for self-employed citizens, who currently pay only 4–6% in tax. The self-employment regime may be abolished as early as 2026, forcing people either to register as entrepreneurs or pay the full tax rate.

Intelligence reports say that the government is also considering introducing social contributions for those who are officially unemployed — jobless citizens, freelancers, and people working informally. These initiatives are being promoted under the guise of “social justice,” but in reality, they increase the burden on the population.

The authorities also plan to cut social programs: maternity capital may only be paid for a third child, while the “family mortgage” program would be shifted to regional funding. Local budgets — already in deficit in 68 regions — are being forced to raise transport taxes and parking fees, becoming the first line of unpopular decisions.

It is noted that these changes are a direct consequence of the war, as sanctions imposed for the aggression have reduced Russia’s revenues. The Kremlin is effectively changing its social contract with citizens: earlier, the formula was “you don’t protest – we guarantee stability,” but now it has become simply: “you support the regime – you pay more.”

As reported by Ukrinform, the Russian economy is entering a phase of prolonged decline: companies are increasingly reporting financial difficulties, cutting expenses, and postponing investments.

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