Russia won’t win war: Sybiha refutes false assumptions on frontline developments

This was stated by Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andriy Sybiha on X, Ukrinform reports.

He noted that, although the situation on the front was and remains tense and difficult, Russia was unable to break through the front and never achieved strategic success in any of the directions, despite enormous efforts taken and resources employed.

“The overall assumption that Russia is winning the war is incorrect. It is based on a common pattern among foreign analysts of underestimating Ukraine and overestimating Russia. This pattern has been proven wrong many times before, but people keep falling into the same trap,” the Foreign Minister stressed.

In fact, Russia’s offensive efforts last year and this winter have largely “lost steam”, Sybiha noted, adding that Ukraine has largely stabilized the front line and even reclaimed some ground near Pokrovsk and in other areas.

According to the top diplomat, Russia is achieving only minimal advances at an extremely high cost in some areas, losing more than a thousand soldiers killed and wounded in action each day.

“These are the bloodiest square meters that any army has taken in modern history,” the minister emphasized.

The head of Ukrainian diplomacy emphasized the huge scale of losses that forced the Kremlin to turn to the North Korean regime for support, and more than 12,000 North Korean soldiers got involved in the fighting in Kursk region.

He added that Russia had planned to retake their Kursk region within a few months, but failed to do so for almost nine months, and at the current pace of advance in Donetsk region, Moscow would need “many years” to take all of it under control.

“With the current developments in mind, no one should lose sight of the bigger picture, which demonstrates that Russia's full-scale invasion was a complete disaster. It began as a blitzkrieg, with the goal of destroying Ukraine and toppling its leadership in a matter of days. Over three years later, Russia has lost over 950,000 soldiers killed or wounded in action, but it has not captured a single additional regional center in Ukraine since the 2022 invasion. Kherson was the only one, but Ukraine liberated it in 2022, along with more than half of the occupied territories,” Sybiha noted.

He noted that Ukraine had expanded its defense industry sixfold, now covering approximately 40% of its defense needs independently, and that Ukraine produces 95% of the drones that destroyed 77,000 Russian targets along the frontline in March 2025 alone. The number is 10% higher than in February, with Ukraine’s drone capacity growing by the week, according to the minister. In general, up to three-quarters of targets are destroyed using drones, Sybiha emphasized.

“Ukraine wants peace more than anyone else in the world. We never wanted this war, and we want it to end as soon as possible. We are working hard together with the United States, European and other partners to achieve peace. And this path must be based on accurate information, assumptions, and estimates. What we require is pressure on Russia and a clear strengthening of Ukraine, which will deprive Moscow of any illusions that it can turn the tide in its favor. Such measures will force the Kremlin to consider ending the war rather than expanding it,” the head of the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry said.

As Ukrinform reported earlier, on Monday, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Russia was allegedly waiting for a signal from Ukraine to resume direct negotiations.