Central European Duo, Johnson's Rise to House of Representatives, and Middle East Resonance

Mike Johnson, a Trumpist, became the new Speaker of the House of Representatives. The conflict in the Middle East is gaining new details.

The new-old Slovak prime minister attended a meeting of the European Council almost immediately after forming the government. Since this is Robert Fico's fourth experience as head of the Slovak government, he is familiar with everything in Brussels. He has one obvious ally, Viktor Orban, whose position will be discussed below. For now, let's note that Fico has emphasized his reluctance to supply weapons to Ukraine and to impose new sanctions against Russia without analyzing their impact on Slovakia's economy. He is also skeptical about the formation of the EU's Ukraine Fund, which should amount to 50 billion euros for 4 years.

The Hungarian prime minister can only be amused by the position of his Slovak counterpart, as his criticism of Ukraine will no longer be unique. The Central European duo of populist prime ministers shows that the ideas of a strong hand, which are relied upon in the Kremlin, are popular in the region. However, other participants in the European Council meeting made it clear that they did not like the position of the leaders of Slovakia and Hungary. However, this did not stop Viktor Orban, who compared Hungary's membership in the EU to the Soviet occupation of the country on the anniversary of the suppression of the Budapest uprising by Soviet troops. The comparison was openly provocative, which is why Josep Borrell emphasized that no one is keeping Hungary in the EU. Orban appears to have adopted blackmail tactics to obtain funds blocked by Brussels for economic recovery. And his statements are unlikely to become less loud in the near future. Hungarian Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó's recent trips to Moscow and Minsk indicate that Budapest sees itself as a potential negotiating platform in the context of ending the Russian-Ukrainian war.

Mike Johnson, a consistent ally of Donald Trump, has been elected Speaker of the House of Representatives. Together with his namesake Pence's refusal to claim the status of the Republican presidential candidate, this suggests that Donald Trump will be the nominee of the Great Old Party, as the Republicans are also called, in the 2024 presidential election. Therefore, the House of Representatives, which is controlled by the Republicans, will become the scene of a powerful political confrontation. Johnson has already spoken out in favor of dismembering the $100 billion aid package proposed by Joseph Biden last week, insisting on getting aid to Israel as soon as possible. He is not refusing to help Ukraine outright, but he is ready to put forward a number of conditions for its provision. It is time for official Kyiv to use the mechanisms of parliamentary diplomacy to restore bipartisan support for Ukraine and prevent the strategic partnership with the United States from being undermined.

Meanwhile, the IDF is carrying out operations in the Gaza Strip that do not meet the expectations of many experts, combining demonstrative actions of armored vehicles with targeted liquidations of its most dangerous opponents from Hamas. Benjamin Netanyahu's announcement of a new stage of the war so far looks more like a propaganda campaign. The conflict in the Middle East is noticeably reminiscent of a global litmus test, and Elon Musk's willingness to use Starlink in the Gaza Strip is already taking on a geopolitical dimension. Recep Erdogan celebrated the 100th anniversary of the proclamation of the Republic of Turkey with a statement so offensive to Israel that it decided to recall its diplomats from Turkey. It is worth recalling that Erdogan not only claims to be a leader in the Muslim world, but also heads a NATO country. Russia has hosted a Hamas delegation and a representative of Iran in Moscow, and an outbreak of anti-Semitism, controlled and directed by the intelligence services, has been recorded in the North Caucasus.  The global dimension of the Middle East conflict continues to prevail over its military component.

Yevhen MAGDA, Institute of World Policy