Echoes of unlearned lessons, Polish-style mobilization and Black Sea search

Echoes of unlearned lessons, Polish-style mobilization and Black Sea search

The anniversaries of the beginning of the Russian-Georgian war and mass protests in Belarus should serve as a starting point for rethinking the situation in the post-Soviet space.

Poland intensifies preparations for parliamentary elections and a referendum. The Black Sea is becoming an increasingly hot spot after the termination of the grain agreement.

August 2008 changed the situation in the post-Soviet space forever, as Russia not only unleashed a war against Georgia, but also gained territorial gains and a sense of impunity. It did not stop there, managing to change Tbilisi's foreign policy course to one more loyal to the Kremlin. For Ukraine, in these circumstances, the struggle for the release of Mikheil Saakashvili, who has acquired Ukrainian citizenship, is of particular importance. In fact, the most massive political protests in the history of Belarus have changed the mood in the country and given impetus to the formation of the Belarusian political nation. It is unfortunate that the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry did not join the words of support expressed to representatives of the Belarusian democratic forces by the European Union. To stop being afraid of Russia and to create a system of responses to its encroachments is the main task for the states that are its neighbors.

Poland has received a date for parliamentary elections and a referendum, with Andrzej Duda setting them for October 15. This means that the next two months will be filled not only with political discussions, but also with the Kremlin's efforts to undermine Warsaw's position in the Baltic-Black Sea region. Wagner's maneuvers in the information space and Alexander Lukashenko's verbal activity on the Polish direction will obviously serve this purpose. Polish Defense Minister Mariusz Blaszczak announced the launch of the RENGAW training operation to cover the border with Belarus. It is no coincidence that the celebration of the Polish Army Day on August 15 will be the largest in recent years - Poland will demonstrate its readiness to defend itself.

The situation in the Black Sea basin after Russia's withdrawal from the grain deal is not developing according to the Kremlin's plans. The maritime drone attack on the Russian Black Sea Fleet base in Novorossiysk and the Sig tanker near the Kerch Bridge demonstrated that Russia cannot dominate the Black Sea alone, even against the backdrop of the passivity of NATO navies. The maritime drone strikes have outlined realistic scenarios for Russia's foreign trade activity in the Black Sea basin.  The Russian Defense Ministry's fake report about the inspection of a ship flying the Palauan flag is unlikely to change the situation. One can only imagine the interest with which Ankara is watching the developments, as Recep Erdogan hopes to convince Putin to return to the grain deal during a personal meeting.

Yevhen MAGDA, Institute of World Policy

The first photo: PAP

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