Big business in Russia on brink of default – intelligence

That is according to Ukraine's Foreign Intelligence Service, Ukrinform reports.

According to the organization, in 2025, 62% of civilian enterprises recorded a drop in profits, 66% reduced investment, and 15% completely froze their projects.

At the same time, 72% of companies, including state-owned corporations, reported an increase in accounts receivable. Against this backdrop, some businesses are already preparing to cut staff in the second half of 2026.

RUIE Vice President Alexander Murychev warned of a worsening liquidity crisis and non-payments, the depletion of companies' resources, and growing bankruptcy risks.

The RUIE, whose leadership includes billionaires from the Forbes list, has effectively formulated a set of systemic complaints against the government and the Central Bank. Businesses consider the key interest rate excessive even after it was reduced to 15.5%, as tight monetary policy is restraining investment and pushing companies toward defaults.

In January 2026, 51 cases of debt obligations not being fulfilled were recorded, with the amount of missed payments doubling year-on-year to $44 million.

Businesses also cite a lack of coordination within the government's economic bloc as a separate problem: parallel decisions by the Ministry of Economic Development, the Ministry of Finance, and the Central Bank, each focused on its own macroeconomic indicators, are creating a vacuum in investment strategy. Additional pressure comes from higher taxes, expensive loans, and limited access to financing, forcing companies to accumulate liquidity instead of expanding production.

By the end of the year, a decline was recorded in 21 out of 28 priority sectors, while growth was demonstrated only by enterprises linked to the defense-industrial complex, pointing to further militarization of the economic structure.

"The current dynamics indicate the accumulation of deep imbalances in the corporate sector. Without lowering the cost of capital and restoring demand, the wave of defaults, layoffs, and bankruptcies in 2026 will only intensify, while the RUIE's public criticism demonstrates growing internal pressure from big business on Russia's economic policy," the Foreign Intelligence Service said.