China edges Russia out of Mongolian exports — intelligence

This was reported by the Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine, according to Ukrinform.

Mongolia plans to increase coal exports to China by almost 20% this year. According to government forecasts, sales are expected to reach 100 million tonnes, thereby strengthening the resource sector, which already accounts for approximately 12% of the country’s GDP. The government also declares proven oil reserves of 33.4 billion tonnes, although coal remains the most marketable component of Mongolia’s exports.

To support this growth, both countries are advancing infrastructure projects: China and Mongolia have agreed to build a new railway line between Gants-Mod and Gashuun Sukhait. In parallel, Beijing is constructing an approach to the Gants-Mod crossing on its side of the border.

These projects could push Mongolia’s annual coal exports to 165 million tonnes—an especially significant development for China, as the world’s largest steel producer.

Beijing’s dominance in Mongolia’s external trade is expanding rapidly. Currently, over 90% of Mongolian exports are directed to the Chinese market, while in 2022 this figure stood at 64%. For comparison, Switzerland, the second-largest destination, receives only 5.6% of Mongolian shipments.

According to intelligence, Russia—until recently one of Mongolia’s key neighboring partners—has effectively lost its position. Its share in Ulaanbaatar’s exports has fallen to 0.5%, reflecting a shift in the region’s geoeconomic balance and the gradual displacement of Moscow from the Mongolian market.

“Mongolia’s growing trade dependence on China indicates a profound transformation of economic priorities and a reformatting of the power field in Central Asia, where Russia’s influence continues to weaken amid Beijing’s active expansion,” the intelligence service noted.

As reported by Ukrinform, Beijing has declined to invest in Gazprom’s 2,600-kilometer pipeline project.

Photo: AA