Putin exaggerating Russia’s tactical gains to create impression of “collapse of Ukrainian defenses” – ISW

According to Ukrinform, this is stated in a report by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

According to analysts, Russian president Vladimir Putin and high-ranking Russian military commanders continue to exaggerate Russia’s tactical gains in the war against Ukraine in order to create the false impression that Ukrainian defenses across the entire frontline are on the verge of collapse. As an example, ISW points to Putin’s recent meeting with Russia’s General Staff leadership on December 27.

“The Kremlin likely timed the meeting to fall on the eve of the December 28 meeting between US President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in Florida in order to influence the US-Ukrainian meeting,” the analysts assess.

The report notes that during the meeting, Russian Chief of the General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov and Russian armed forces commanders made a number of likely exaggerated claims about Russia’s battlefield successes, including assertions of the complete capture of several Ukrainian towns in the Donetsk region and the town of Huliaipole in the Zaporizhzhia region.

ISW assesses that Russian forces have advanced at an average rate of 14.4 square kilometers per day in 2025, meaning that Russian troops would need approximately 1,190 days — until April 1, 2029 — to seize the remainder of Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson regions if the current pace were maintained.

“This calculation, however, does not take into account the many obstacles Russian forces would face along the way, such as crossing the Dnipro River, overcoming other water features throughout the oblasts, and seizing the major cities of Zaporizhzhia City (with a pre-war population of about 710,000 people) and Kherson City (with a pre-war population of about 280,000). Russian advances are not likely to be linear, and it will likely take Russian forces longer than 1,190 days to seize all four oblasts,” the analysts believe.

As stated in the report, Putin and his commanders also continue to falsely portray Russia’s efforts to seize the so-called Fortress Belt in the Donetsk region as a quick and easy task. The Fortress Belt consists of four heavily fortified large settlements — Kostiantynivka, Druzhkivka, Kramatorsk, and Sloviansk — which form the backbone of Ukraine’s defenses in Donetsk region.

“Putin and the commanders are presenting claimed subtactical- or tactical-level Russian successes, such as the seizure of the small settlement of Sofiivka, as having operational- or even strategic-level significance. Ukraine’s Fortress Belt is much larger and more populous than any of the settlements or towns Russian forces have seized in recent years, and Russian forces have shown no ability to rapidly envelop, penetrate, or otherwise seize cities of this size since 2022,” the analysts write.

At the same time, ISW continues to assess that Kremlin statements demonstrate that Russia’s goals in Ukraine extend beyond territorial claims such as the seizure of the Donetsk region, and that a peace agreement that does not address Russia’s demands beyond Ukraine — including regarding NATO and the EU — will not satisfy Russia and will not ensure a lasting peace capable of normalizing Russian-European or US-Russian relations.

As reported by Ukrinform, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said that Ukraine and the United States share a common position on the need for a diplomatic end to the war; however, if Russia refuses a peace agreement, international support for Ukraine will continue.