Russia's structural reform plan essentially detached from reality – intelligence
The Ukrainian Foreign Intelligence Service reported this on its website, according to Ukrinform.
According to the agency, the Russian government presented the Structural Reform Plan up to 2030, presenting it as a strategy for economic growth and resilience.
The document covers seven areas and more than 60 indicators, including labor market reform, stimulation of domestic demand, technological modernization, improvement of the investment climate, development of foreign trade, and optimization of the military-industrial complex.
Official forecasts predict GDP growth of 3–4%, inflation dropping to 4.5% by 2027, and the key interest rate falling to 10–11%.
However, intelligence notes that in essence, this is a declarative and propagandistic document detached from reality. The stated goals contradict actual trends, as the labor market is shrinking, the investment climate is deteriorating, and support for defense industry enterprises undermines any principles of competitiveness.
Sanctions, production cuts, and capital outflows make the projected indicators unattainable. In practice, the plan is an attempt to create an optimistic facade against the backdrop of strict fiscal constraints.
"Promises of technological modernization and growth appear to be political rhetoric rather than economic strategy. The real goal of the document is to centralize control over financial flows, tax revenues, and key sectors. This is not a development program, but a tool for increasing state pressure, which underscores its unreality and demonstrates disconnect from real economic processes," the Foreign Intelligence Service stated.
As Ukrinform reported, despite deepening budgetary problems and stagnating domestic demand, Russia has sharply increased external borrowing.
