Impact of Ukraine's long-range strikes on Russia will be visible next year – Austrian expert

Austrian military expert Gustav Gressel, a lecturer at the Austrian National Defense Academy, shared this view in a comment to Ukrinform.

"Ukraine's advantage lies in being a decentralized state with a bottom-up system, whereas Russia is highly centralized – top-down – with a centralized economy and defense industry. Large enterprises, power plants, and the fossil-fuel sector make Russia more vulnerable," he said.

According to Gressel, the Kremlin "still has room to maneuver, can mitigate fuel shortages, and reallocate finances to keep the war going." However, the longer disruptions to Russia's oil exports and fuel production persist as a result of Ukraine's long-range strikes, "the more complicated the situation becomes."

"The question now is how long Ukraine can sustain this and what level of Western support it needs to maintain this pace for as long and as intensively as possible. We will see the results next year. Long-range strikes do not produce quick, immediate outcomes – this is a game of time and endurance. The goal is to undermine financial stability, force costly compensatory measures, and drain Russia's military budget. It's a long game," the expert said.

Gressel also highlighted the successful use of Ukraine's Flamingo and Neptune cruise missiles.

"The key to using such missiles is proper route planning: knowing where air defense systems are located, where interceptor patrols operate, and planning the timing and flight path to bypass Russian air defenses. For this, Ukraine needs Western intelligence – timely and high-quality. The Neptune, and especially the Flamingo, are large and lack stealth technology. If they're detected, they're easy to shoot down. But if the route is planned well – and Russia is vast, with many open air corridors – the strike can be highly effective," Gressel said.

He also emphasized the vulnerability of Russia's centralized industry: by striking just a few facilities, it is possible to paralyze, for example, the entire supply chain for artillery ammunition for months.

"Drones caused relatively 'light' damage, but a Flamingo strike results in far greater destruction. And if several Flamingos hit, the damage becomes significant," the Austrian expert added.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said earlier that strengthening Ukraine's long-range capabilities was forcing Russia to demonstrate readiness to move toward ending the war.