ISW: Kremlin signals to Trump that his demands are incompatible with Russia's war aims

According to Ukrinform, this was stated in the latest report by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

Analysts noted that in a recent statement by Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, he reiterated that Russia is not ready to agree to an immediate ceasefire in Ukraine unless it leads to Ukraine's complete capitulation. He said Russia has not changed its stance since the Alaska summit in August this year, stressing that Moscow seeks not a short-term ceasefire that "leads nowhere," but a "long-term stable peace." Lavrov responded to U.S. demands for an immediate end to the war by claiming that a ceasefire would not address the so-called "root causes" of the conflict, which he continues to define as NATO's eastward expansion and Ukraine's alleged discrimination against Russian speakers.

"Lavrov's statements emphasize the Kremlin's determination to achieve its original war aims despite American demands for an immediate end to the conflict. Russian President Vladimir Putin and senior Kremlin officials have repeatedly stated that Russia will not agree to a ceasefire until Ukraine and the West meet Russia’s demands of Ukrainian neutrality, the removal of the legitimate government in Ukraine, the installation of a pro-Russian government, and changes to NATO's Open Door Policy. Lavrov's statements are a continuation of the Kremlin's attempts to signal to US President Donald Trump that Trump's demands for an immediate end to the war are incompatible with Russia's war aims," analysts stated.

At the same time, ISW states that economic pressure alone is insufficient to compel Russia to negotiate and that ending the war in Ukraine depends on the continued strong military support for Kyiv.

As Ukrinform reported, on October 16, Trump held a phone conversation with Putin, after which he announced plans to meet with the Kremlin leader in Budapest to discuss the possibility of ending this "inglorious" war between Russia and Ukraine.

No exact date for the Budapest meeting has been announced yet. However, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, a longtime ally of Trump, said the meeting could take place within the next two weeks if the U.S. and Russian foreign ministers manage to resolve certain issues at a previously planned meeting. That meeting — between U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov — scheduled for this week, was postponed.

Later, Trump personally confirmed that the U.S. had backed away from quickly organizing a summit with Putin in Hungary, noting that he did not want to waste time and would decide on further steps in the coming days.