Kremlin using diplomacy with US to divert attention from war in Ukraine – ISW

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said this in a new report, according to Ukrinform.

"Kremlin officials' public statements continue to demonstrate that Russia remains committed to achieving its original war goals in Ukraine and is not interested in good faith negotiations to end the war, however," ISW analysts concluded, following a July 10 meeting between U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov.

Russian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Maria Zakharova reiterated on July 9 Russia's original war demands for "Ukrainian regime change" and "demilitarization." On the same day, Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov claimed that Russia prefers to achieve its war goals through peaceful and diplomatic means but that the war continues and the "realities on the ground" are changing every day.

ISW notes that Kremlin officials often call for Ukraine to recognize the "realities on the ground" (a reference to the frontline in Ukraine) to allude to the idea that Russia is in a stronger negotiating position given the battlefield situation and to demand that Ukraine concede to Russia's unwavering demands amounting to complete capitulation to Russia.

The Russian Foreign Ministry readout of the Rubio-Lavrov meeting heavily emphasized Rubio and Lavrov's reported discussions about bilateral US-Russian issues unrelated to the war in Ukraine, including the restoration of US-Russian contacts, economic and humanitarian cooperation, direct air traffic, and diplomatic missions.

The Russian MFA's readout concluded that the United States and Russia will continue dialogue about a "growing range of issues of mutual interest."

Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov claimed on July 10 there has been no "slowdown in progress" in developing US-Russian relations.

ISW previously assessed that the Kremlin attempted to use economic incentives unrelated to the war in Ukraine and the prospect of US-Russian arms control talks to extract concessions from the United States about the war in Ukraine.

ISW also recently assessed that Vladimir Putin unsuccessfully attempted to use Iranian nuclear negotiations and offers to mediate the Israel-Iran war to pose himself to Trump as an effective negotiator as part of efforts to secure concessions on the war in Ukraine.

"The Kremlin is likely attempting to push the United States to suspend its diplomatic efforts to end the war in Ukraine in exchange for developing US-Russian bilateral relations and economic opportunities," ISW said.

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio met with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov on Thursday, July 10, in Malaysia, just days after another large-scale Russian aerial assault on Ukraine. The meeting lasted 50 minutes.

Following the talks, Rubio said the United States was disappointed by the lack of progress toward a peaceful resolution to Russia's war in Ukraine. He added that Russia had proposed "a new and different approach" during the meeting, though he did not specify what it entailed.

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