Russia planning summer offensive in southern and eastern Ukraine – ISW

The Russian military command is planning a large-scale offensive this summer in southern and eastern Ukraine, demonstrating the Kremlin’s lack of interest in ending the war anytime soon.

Ukrinform reports this, citing a report from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

According to the report, the Russian military command planning to deploy its likely limited strategic reserves to a planned summer 2026 offensive in southern and/or eastern Ukraine. However, analysts note that the Russian military likely lacks sufficient reserves to both properly prepare for the offensive and achieve its objectives.

The report highlights the assessment by Ukrainian military analyst Kostiantyn Mashovets on February 5, who believes that Russian forces have begun preparing for a summer offensive, which he predicts could start as early as late April 2026. Mashovets assessed that Russian forces will likely focus on the Sloviansk-Kramatorsk and/or Orikhiv-Zaporizhzhia directions. He noted that the Russians are attempting to seize the necessary starting positions in the coming months as they have become bogged down in achieving tactical objectives in these directions and cannot advance quickly enough to meet the deadline set by the Russian military command.

Mashovets also noted that the Russian military command is reluctant to use its strategic reserves, which it has been trying to build up since autumn 2025, to accelerate preparatory tactical actions.

ISW points out that Russia has been forming a strategic reserve from new recruits since July 2025, possibly to facilitate such an offensive operation, but has been struggling to replace its losses in Ukraine and has had to deploy operational reserves to support ongoing combat operations.

“Russian plans for a summer offensive highlight Russia’s determination to achieve its war aims, including the seizure of Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia oblasts, through military means if need be. Senior Kremlin officials have repeatedly stated that Russia will continue efforts on the battlefield to achieve its aims if it cannot achieve them through negotiations,” the report states.

Analysts note that these plans are not a sign of genuine Kremlin interest in peace talks to end the war.

“The Russian military command’s intention to conduct a large-scale summer offensive – even if Russian forces may struggle to achieve its objectives – demonstrates the Kremlin’s disinterest in finding a solution to end the war via negotiations in the coming weeks or months,” the analysts conclude.

As previously reported by Ukrinform, President Volodymyr Zelensky suggested that Russian President Vladimir Putin might be considering a pause in the war due to rapidly growing financial problems in Russia, including a budget deficit.

Photo: Kostiantyn Liberov