Sanctions against Rosneft and Lukoil could cost Kremlin up to $5.5B monthly — Vlasiuk

Vladyslav Vlasiuk, the President’s Commissioner for Sanctions Policy, stated this in an interview with Ukrinform.

“The UK was the first to impose sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil, followed a week later by the United States. The Americans extended restrictions to these companies and 32 of their subsidiaries, targeting vertically integrated structures. This affects 60–70% of Russia’s oil exports to India and China. If compliance reaches even 80%, the estimated monthly loss to the Russian budget could be around $5.5 billion,” Vlasiuk explained.

Although U.S. sanctions officially take effect on November 20, their impact is already being felt.

“Oil contracts are signed in advance. Just last week, we observed a nearly 20% drop in future supply agreements. There are already reports that Chinese buyers have sharply reduced their interest in Russian oil. So the effect is already visible,” he added.

Vlasiuk emphasized that any attempts by Russia to circumvent the sanctions are unlikely to succeed, as Western partners are acting in coordination.

“Redirecting exports through another legal entity will almost certainly result in that company being sanctioned as well. After all, if the Americans, Europeans, and British have already imposed sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil, then adding any other exporter to the blacklist would, in principle, be a straightforward matter,” he noted.

He also pointed out that even China cannot fully ignore these restrictions.

“In today’s oil trade, issues like supply, export, production, and transport insurance cannot be reduced to bilateral relations between Russia and China. The global oil market doesn’t operate in isolation. I believe the impact will be substantial,” Vlasiuk said.

He further stressed that sanctions against oil companies will affect Russia’s ability to finance its defense industry.

“This will limit Russia’s capacity to pay for weapons. It’s not just about reduced budget revenues — it’s also about restricted access to funds held by these companies, which are often used to settle payments for military supplies. Rosneft, Lukoil, and many other key exporters have frequently used funds accumulated outside Russia to settle payments for Russia’s needs,” Vlasiuk explained.

As previously reported by Ukrinform, maritime shipments of Russian crude oil have sharply declined following the latest U.S. sanctions.

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