Kremlin trying to keep economy running through lies, remaining reserves – Foreign Intelligence Service

This was reported by the Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine, Ukrinform saw.

“The degradation of the russian economy is deepening against the background of a protracted war against Ukraine and multi-level Western sanctions. The kremlin’s key stabilization tool – the national wealth fund (nwf) – is undergoing a systemic reduction,” the intelligence agency noted.

Thus, according to the FISU, “as of early July 2022, the liquid part of the nwf has reached $145 billion. A year on, in July 2023, that number decreased to $78 billion. As of May 1, 2025, the reserves amounted to only $39 billion. Since the beginning of the full-scale war, the decline has almost quadrupled”.

The fund’s main source of revenue (oil exports) remains under pressure. Western sanctions have limited Russia’s access to traditional markets, while alternative supply routes are proving less efficient and more costly.

The average price of Brent crude oil is expected to reach $64 per barrel in 2025 and $60 in 2026. For Russia, whose budget depends on hydrocarbon revenues, such dynamics pose critical fiscal risks.

Problems are already evident in key sectors. For example, projects by the Rosatom Corporation, scheduled for 2025, remain underfunded by 80%, Russian Railways are seeing a decline in transportation volumes, and production in the mining, metallurgical, and construction sectors is on decline, the intelligence agency wrote. Also, Russian corporations are massively suspending dividend payments.

“All of this indicates large-scale budget constraints and a loss of financial maneuverability, even in strategic industries,” the FISU noted.

Despite this, Moscow keeps trying to illuminate confidence as regards economic stability.

However, state-controlled propaganda, which conceals the actual scale of the economic downturn, does not change facts: the resource-based model of the Russian economy is losing efficiency.

“If the current restrictions and additional measures are maintained – in particular, strengthening control over the circumvention of oil sanctions – russia risks losing the last remnants of its financial cushion as early as 2026,” the intelligence service emphasized.

As Ukrinform reported, the Russia’s special envoy for economic cooperation with foreign states, Kirill Dmitriev, is trying to defreeze Russian assets in foreign jurisdictions.