German expert: Ukraine should rely on its own missiles, not America’s

That view was expressed in a comment to Ukrinform by Andreas Umland, an analyst at the Stockholm Centre for Eastern European Studies (SCEEUS).

“I cannot predict whether Tomahawk missiles will reach Ukraine at all. My concern is that they might not — similar to sanctions that mostly remained at the level of threats,” the expert said.

If these missiles are delivered, everything will depend on the number, he added.

According to Umland, if Ukraine receives around 20 missiles, it would be more of a symbolic gesture, just like the small number of Abrams tanks — something Russia would simply ignore. He believes Donald Trump’s strategy is to avoid the issue of supplying Tomahawks while pretending to play along.

“So, there may be no real effect. That’s why it’s good that Ukraine is developing its own similar weapons — like the Flamingo and Neptune missiles — making itself increasingly independent,” Umland emphasized.

He identified Ukrainian strikes on Russia’s energy infrastructure as key factors exerting pressure on Moscow. Umland noted that if U.S. partners indeed provided Ukraine with intelligence that significantly improved the effectiveness of its drone and missile strikes, that would be an important factor of pressure. However, he added that Ukraine’s defense forces might have managed effectively even without such intelligence.

Overall, the German expert believes that the United States has a moral obligation to support Ukraine, at least because it participated in the trilateral talks in the 1990s on Ukraine’s nuclear disarmament and its accession to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT). Those were negotiations between the U.S., Russia, and Ukraine — without European participation, he reminded.

“If the U.S. had conducted those talks differently — for example, by providing for Ukraine’s NATO membership or greater support — the situation today would be different. Thus, historically, the U.S. bears greater responsibility than European countries, although geographical proximity naturally places a heavier responsibility on countries like Germany,” Umland said.

As reported, the possibility of transferring U.S. long-range missiles to Ukraine has been widely discussed in recent days, causing panic in Russia. The issue was also reportedly raised during a phone conversation between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin, ahead of the upcoming meeting between the U.S. and Ukrainian presidents.